How to Predict Football Match Outcomes Using Statistical Models

How do you use statistical models to predict a football match? Football is one of the world’s most popular sports if not the most popular. The English Premier League alone, garners an average viewership of over 1 million people for every match shown live on TV.

The popularity of football makes it a huge betting market for avid punters. From wagering on the outcome of a match to the number of corners both clubs will have in a particular match there are numerous possibilities you can profit from by betting on football. 

When making a Football prediction, bettors will often try to maximise their profit while also wanting to curb the risk of losing and get the best possible odds for an outcome. Here, experts use statistics to model outcomes of football matches, based on the strengths and weaknesses of the playing clubs.

In this article:

• What are statistical models?
• How statistical models can be used to predict football match outcomes.
• What are the most accurate statistical models for predicting a football match?
• Factors to consider when using statistical models to predict football match outcomes.

What Are Statistical Models?

Statistical models is a sports betting method that predicts the outcome of a football match, using statistics. Each method aims to outperform bookmakers’ predictions, who use them to set the odds on the result of football games.

How Statistical Models Can Be Used To Predict Football Match Outcomes

Statistical models can predict football match outcomes by incorporating different factors and data. These models seek to forecast the result of a game based on various variables such as match statistics, historical data, and team ratings.

These models also explore the use of machine learning algorithms, like logistic regression, support vector machines, random forests, gradient boosting, and artificial neural networks. Experts use datasets to train these algorithms. The datasets contain information such as player performance, team rankings, match results, and player performance.

By evaluating these data points, the statistical models can predict the outcomes of football matches with varying degrees of accuracy. How effective these models are, has been assessed using metrics such as recall, accuracy, and precision. And they have all provided promising results in providing Accurate Football Predictions.

What Are The Most Accurate Statistical Models For Predicting A Football Match?

These statistical models leverage parameters like team statistics, player performance indices, and external factors to advance prediction accuracy in football match outcomes.

1. Negative Binomial Distribution

Negative binomial distribution analyses ball passing between players during football matches. Reep and Benjamin found this method. They improved it in 1971, and in 1974, Hill proposed that soccer game results are to some extent predictable and not just a method of chance.

2. Poisson Distribution

Poisson Distribution is a statistical model that predicts number of goals scored or conceded by each club. Teams that have scored highly in the past have a greater chance of scoring goals in the future. Poisson Distribution also factors in homefield advantage.

Bettors with a keen eye will notice that the home team often scores more goals than the guests. This is the “home advantage” and it’s not only specific to football. Poisson is a discrete probability distribution that describes the probability of the number of events within a set period, with a known average of occurrence.

3. Logistic Regression, Artificial Neural Networks, XGBoost

Logistic Regression, Artificial Neural Networks, and XGBoost are some of the most accurate statistical models you’ll want for predicting football match outcomes. 

4. Machine Learning Algorithms

Naive Bayers, Support Vector Machine, and Logistic Regression are machine learning algorithms that have been applied in Correct Score Prediction.

5. Supervised Learning Algorithms

Supervised learning algorithms are used to predict the winners of matches, with four different machine learning algorithms evaluated for accuracy.

6. Data Mining

Data mining techniques predict match results, scoring a prediction accuracy of 70.58% through feature extraction and relevant attribute selection.

Factors To Consider When Using Statistical Models To Predict Football Match Outcomes

In football statistical methods, two factors determine the strength of a team:

• The number of goals they score.
• The number of goals they concede.

Stronger teams will score more goals, and concede fewer goals than the weaker teams. But, it is not certain that the stronger side will defeat the weaker side since football is not easy.

The statistics calculated can only predict the probability of a definite outcome in the match, either the win, lose, or draw outcome or the specific score.