What is the relationship between football prediction and statistics?
Throughout the years, football has stood tall as one of the most popular sports in the world. And even after all this time, fans have never gotten tired of betting for football or discussing it with fellow enthusiasts. Yet, there has always been one subject that doesn’t get talked about enough and it is the influence of statistics in football prediction.
When it comes to football statistics and its scope in this beloved sport, information is power. The football industry relies heavily on statistics for a number of activities – improving player performance, scouting, injury prevention, and the team’s overall quality of play too.
But what are some ways statistics have influenced Football Prediction? How do we identify this impact? This article seeks to discuss this at length and provide some clarity for you as well.
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Article Content:
- What is statistical football prediction?
- Rise of statistical analysis in football prediction (how it came to be)
- History and the use of statistics in football
- How statistics are used in football prediction today
- Statistics that matter when predicting football matches
- Basic statistics that are employed for football prediction
- Pros and cons of using statistics in football prediction
Read: Football Betting: Important Facts And Questions That Must Be Answered
What Is Statistical Football Prediction?
Statistical Football Prediction is a method used to predict the outcome of football matches by using statistical tools. The aim of this method is to outdo bookmakers’ predictions, who use them to set the odds on the result of football matches.
Ranking is the most commonly used statistical approach to football prediction. Football ranking systems rank teams based on their previous game results so that the strongest team is bestowed the highest rank. The result of a game can be predicted by comparing opponents’ ranks.
There are different types of football ranking systems, so popular ones are FIFA World Rankings or World Football Elo Ratings.
Another method used for football prediction is rating systems. While ranking systems focus solely on team order, rating systems assign to every team a continuously scaled strength indicator.
Furthermore, ratings can be assigned to not just a team, but to its attacking and defensive strengths, home field advantage, and skills of each team player too.
Drawbacks In Ranking Systems Football Match Predictions
There are three core drawbacks in football match predictions based on ranking systems.
- Ranks assigned to each team do not show a clear difference between their attacking and defensive strengths.
- Ranks are accumulated averages and do not account for skill changes in football teams.
- The ranking system’s main goal is not to predict football games’ results, but to sort teams according to their average strength.
Rise Of Statistical Analysis In Football Prediction (How It Came To Be)
Charles Reep a Royal Air Force accountant was the first advocate of using statistics in football. Reep started collecting and analysing football using data after the Second World War. His research concluded that most of the goals in games, came from moves which didn’t have more than 3 passes, this was what birthed the long ball theory.
Reep’s work heavily influenced the modern game, but his theory was later disproved by Jonathan Wilson, who concluded that Charles’ analysis showed that 91.5% of moves in the games he studied had 3 passes or lower and logically it would mean that 91.5% of all goals scored in football would come from movers with 3 passes or lower.
However, Wilson stated that the problem wasn’t with Reep’s data collection, but with how it was interpreted.
Jonathan Wilson proved that data isn’t enough to give teams a competitive edge – being able to interpret it was just as important. Due to his findings, data analysts have become an integral factor in football prediction over the years.
History And The Use Of Statistics In Football
While statistics have been used in football prediction over the years, they didn’t become prominent until the 21st century. Until then, the only noteworthy information was keeping the score on goals.
Today, statistics is being massively used by bookmakers and odd compilers as a tool for football prediction or even championship tournaments. Although statistics are still relevant and help bettors avoid guesswork when placing wagers, they can still be interpreted. For instance, a player who had fewer passes than their teammate may seem like he didn’t pull his weight in a match, but when factors like his playing only as a substitute in the last 20 minutes of the game are considered, everything changes.
Using statistics in football is one sure way to identify the strengths and weaknesses of a team, which in turn facilitates more predictions within a match. But, statistics don’t always provide context for a particular match and as such can be misleading.
See: Key Differences Between Betting For Fun And Betting For Profit
How Statistics Are Used In Football Prediction Today
There are a lot of different ways statistics are used by football clubs today. We have listed the core ones below:
1. Scouting Talent
Scouts from football leagues use statistical databases to search for talented players quicker and more efficiently. This saves clubs money and time because the scouts can use a system that lets them narrow down to a specific number of players.
They can also use that information to decide which player is worth watching play.
2. Training Players
Coaches can benefit from statistics as much as CEOs of regular companies can. With the use of statistical analysis, they can gain an edge over their competition. They deploy wearable technologies that monitor stats like distance covered by players in a match, and the positions they occupy on the pitch.
This information helps coaches build tailored training sessions for players to ensure that they perform at the highest level possible. These training strategies also ensure that players don’t get injured during the season.
3. Assisting Punditry And Commentary
Apart from teams and coaches, commentary teams and pundits also benefit from statistics, using it to increase the value of entertainment for their viewers.
Pundits on segments like Monday Night Football (MNF) use statistics to offer play-by-play explanations, discuss predictions, and provide context to comments they made during a match.
Statistics now play a major role in the way football is played and enjoyed by bettors. They provide good options for analysis.
Statistics That Matter When Predicting Football Matches
Statistics can be very helpful to football personnel, bettors, and even a Hot Prediction site offering Football betting tips, yet they can be misleading. But, there are still some stats that have proven to be more helpful than others when predicting the outcome of a match.
After all, some game analyses have employed the use of probability distributions like the Poisson distribution. This brings us to our first point:
1. Poisson Distribution
A Poisson distribution helps to predict the probability of certain events happening in a situation in which you know how frequently the event has occurred.
2. Current Form
The current form of the teams playing in a match is one factor that significantly impacts a game. Knowing the history of a team can be helpful when you need to acknowledge its importance and value over the years.
But, if you’re predicting a specific result in a matchup, look at more recent games. Recent games can be a crucial factor especially since they show the total form of a club over a short period before an upcoming game.
3. Home Advantage
Home advantage is another important factor that gets ignored in football prediction. It doesn’t come as a shock that some matches feel different depending on which field the teams are playing on and this is no coincidence.
When a club is playing on their home field, its performance is improved mainly because the team have mastered the ins and outs of the field. This advantage is further fuelled by the support of the home crowd’s cheers which helps too.
4. Home And Away Record
In addition to the current form of a team and home advantage, the home and away records are also key factors in the prediction of football matches.
These records show how a team has performed in certain situations and if there is a massive shift in performance when the teams play home or away games.
5. Injuries And Suspensions
Injuries and suspensions play an essential role in predicting a football game. If key players in a team are absent during a match, this can determine the outcome of a match.
This is particularly true if the teamwork and dynamics noticeably shift because of the absence of some players.
Basic Statistics That Are Employed For Football Prediction
There are certain statistics on clubs and players you’re likely to come across when betting for football. The number of stats at your disposal is endless, but we’ll be focusing on the most common ones.
These are 6 simple statistics that readily provide you with vital information for your football prediction.
1. Points Per Game
Points per game are one of the simplest stats you’ll come across. It is calculated by dividing the total number of points a team scored throughout the season or any other given period by the number of games they played. This gives you the average number of points they scored in a game.
While this helps in measuring how effective a team is at scoring, it overlooks other important factors and doesn’t give much information. But it is great for betting on totals.
Points per game are also used to gauge the number of points allowed by teams. This isn’t very useful statistics, however, it gives you insights into a team’s defense and is still good for betting on totals.
PPG stats can calculate the PPG differential, which is the difference between the average PPG scored and the average PPG allowed. A club with a PPG score of 40 and a PPG allowed of 30 will have a PPG differential of 10. This figure provides a better indication of a club’s overall quality because it considers both its offensive and defensive strength. Although it is still limited.
2. Yards Per Game
Yards per game is another simple statistic for football prediction. YPG measures the average number of yards acquired by a team or single player per game. The higher number: the better. YPG is a limited statistic too, but it gives some insight into the quality of a team or (player).
Just like PPG, YPG too has a stat for YPG allowed by the team. When assessing teams using Yards Per Game allowed, it’s a low number you’re looking for. A defensively strong team will often aim for less than 300 yards per game on average.
The number of yards gained, or allowed by a team doesn’t give bettors much information on its own, you’d have to consider style of play too. Few teams’ styles the total number of yards generated is less important. YPG is indicative of a team’s quality and efficiency.
Furthermore, note that the total number of yards gathered by a team can be broken down depending on how those yards were generated. There are also statistics based on:
- Passing Yards – this measures the total amount of yards gained on completed passes.
- Rushing Yards – measures the total amount of yards gained by rushing players, where a player with the ball in his possession.
Breaking down a team’s YPG into passing yards and rushing yards gives you more clarity of their quality, especially when compared with other factors like playing style.
3. Third Down Efficiency
Third down efficiency is often a team’s final chance at maintaining possession. If they can’t convert a third down, they’ll either punt the ball to their opponent or settle for a field goal attempt. So, a team’s capability to convert their third downs is vital in terms of their overall quality and effectiveness.
This is why a team’s third down efficiency stats prove useful. It tells bettors what percentage of a team’s third downs lead straight to first downs or scoring plays. The higher the percentage, the more successful a team will be at converting their third downs. The better a team gets at converting third downs, the higher their chances of winning.
4. Sacks
The number of sacks by a player speaks to his quality, the same way a team’s total number of sacks shows how strong they are defensively. Sacks are another stat that gauges how well a team is presently performing or will perform in the future.
When using these statistics, you must be careful as it doesn’t tell you much by themselves alone. You can achieve high sack totals without playing effectively, and a team can be effective without recording high sack totals.
As a bettor, use sacks only as general guidelines for measuring teams’ quality and effectiveness.
5. Tackles
Defensive players depend on tackle to limit the yards the opposing teams’ offensive players gained. This makes the number of tackles made a good statistic for assessing the effectiveness of defensive players and the team’s overall defensive quality.
Tackles are useful when evaluating on an individual basis because a player who makes lots of tackles is definitely onto something, but it doesn’t have to be on a team basis. For example, a player might be forced to make lots of tackles because some other area of the team is weak.
6. Interceptions
The number of interceptions is another statistic you can use to measure the quality and effectiveness of defensive players. Especially in terms of cornerbacks, safeties, and linebackers, because they are the ones tasked with covering opposing receivers in the passing game.
One big problem with this statistic is that the number of interceptions a player makes is not very high. You can get this information by examining the highest totals by the team for a season.
Check: Top 10 Football Betting Websites To Follow In 2023
Pros And Cons Of Using Statistics In Football Prediction
You need to decide if you want to use statistics or not in your football prediction. You can begin by finding out what benefits stats offer you.
You must also understand that stats are limited in the information they give you and it comes with its own disadvantages too.
Advantages Of Statistics in Football Prediction
There few core advantages of using statistics, one of the most obvious ones are that they are based on measurable and quantifiable data.
Another thing statistics do is that they help you easily identify strengths and weaknesses, compare the quality of each team, and make more informed predictions.
Disadvantages Of Statistics In Football Prediction
There are some disadvantages to using statistics in football prediction too. The prominent ones are that they don’t provide context often and lead to you ignoring other factors.
Statistics by themselves can be a bit misleading because they don’t provide context all the time. Especially with player stats. Looking at one or two stats for a football player can’t immediately tell you how good a player is.
Player stats can give you information about a player, but you will have to consider more factors too.
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