The 2026 FIFA World Cup kicks off on June 11 across the United States, Canada, and Mexico. It will be the biggest tournament in history, expanding from 32 to 48 teams. France and Spain have emerged as co-favourites with the bookmakers, but history shows that pre-tournament favourites almost never lift the trophy. In the last six World Cups, the pre-tournament favourite has won only once. That gap between expectation and reality is exactly where smart betting opportunities live.
Who Will Win the 2026 World Cup? Odds Comparison
Below is a breakdown of the leading contenders, their odds across major bookmakers, and what the numbers mean for your bet. All odds are accurate as of June 3, 2026.
Spain
Odds: 9/2 | FanDuel +450 | BetMGM +460 | Implied probability: ~17%
Spain are the tournament favourites across all major bookmakers. FanDuel list them at +450 while BetMGM offer +460, making them a fraction shorter than France. The Opta supercomputer backs them as the most likely winner, giving them a 16.1 percent chance of lifting the trophy.
France
Odds: 5/1 | FanDuel +480 | BetMGM +500 | Implied probability: ~17%
France are co-favourites with Spain and FIFA’s top-ranked nation. BetMGM offer a slightly more generous +500 compared to FanDuel’s +480, making BetMGM the better book for France backers. Prediction markets from Polymarket and Kalshi give them approximately a 17.1 percent chance of winning.
England
Odds: 6/1 | FanDuel +650 | BetMGM +600 | Implied probability: ~14%
England are third in the market. There is a notable difference between bookmakers here, with FanDuel offering +650 compared to BetMGM’s +600. Bettors looking to back England should shop around, as the gap is significant on larger stakes. They are the second most backed team at BetMGM, accounting for 9.9 percent of all outright bets.
Brazil
Odds: 7/1 | FanDuel +750 | BetMGM +700 | Implied probability: ~12%
Brazil sit fourth in the market with FanDuel again offering the longer price at +750 versus BetMGM’s +700. Under new coach Carlo Ancelotti, Brazil arrive with renewed optimism. Five-time World Cup winners, they have not lifted the trophy since 2002 and the bookmakers reflect that recent underperformance in their odds.
Argentina
Odds: 8/1 | FanDuel +800 | BetMGM +800 | Implied probability: ~11%
The defending champions are consistently priced at +800 across all major sportsbooks, meaning there is little difference between bookmakers for Argentina backers. At 8/1 they represent the best value among the top five, given their status as reigning champions with a settled squad and a favourable group draw.
Portugal
Odds: 11/1 | FanDuel +1100 | BetMGM +1000 | Implied probability: ~8%
Portugal offer the best bookmaker discrepancy in the top six. BetMGM’s +1000 is notably shorter than FanDuel’s +1100, suggesting different levels of liability. Cristiano Ronaldo leads a squad with genuine semi-final potential, and 11/1 with FanDuel represents fair value for a deep run.
Germany
Odds: 12/1 | FanDuel +1200 | BetMGM +1200 | Implied probability: ~7%
Germany are uniformly priced at +1200 across the main sportsbooks. A four-time World Cup winner with a kind group draw, Germany at 12/1 is the most compelling value bet outside the top five. Their recent exits in 2018 and 2022 have pushed their odds out further than their historical pedigree warrants.
Netherlands
Odds: 16/1 | FanDuel +1600 | BetMGM +1500 | Implied probability: ~6%
The Netherlands are priced between +1500 and +1600 depending on the book, with BetMGM offering the slightly shorter price. A talented squad built around Frenkie de Jong and Virgil van Dijk, the Dutch are capable of a deep run but face stiffer competition from the top of the draw.
USA (Host Nation)
Odds: 55/1 | FanDuel +6000 | BetMGM +5500 | Implied probability: ~2%
The USA are priced as longshots but will benefit from significant home support across their three host stadiums. DraftKings director Johnny Avello has noted that American bettors will back the USA heavily regardless of odds. At +6000 on FanDuel, a small stake is worth considering purely for the entertainment value of a home run.
Sources: FanDuel, BetMGM, CBS Sports, Covers.com, ESPN. Odds correct as of June 3, 2026 and subject to change.
How to Read These Odds (A Quick Guide for New Bettors)
Fractional odds (e.g. 5/1): For every 1 unit you bet, you win 5 units profit if your team wins. A $10 bet on France at 5/1 returns $60 total ($50 profit plus your $10 stake back).
American odds (e.g. +500): A positive number tells you how much profit a $100 bet would return. A $100 bet at +500 wins you $500 profit. The higher the number, the bigger the underdog and the bigger the potential payout.
Implied probability: This converts odds into a percentage chance. Spain at +450 means bookmakers think Spain have roughly an 18 percent chance of winning. No team has higher than 17 to 18 percent because football is unpredictable and 48 teams are competing.
Analysis of the Top 5 Favourites
Spain (4/1 to 9/2)
Spain are the solo favourites according to most bookmakers and prediction tools. The Opta supercomputer gives Spain a 16.1 percent chance of winning, the highest of any nation. They are reigning European champions after beating England in the Euro 2024 final.
The big concern was Lamine Yamal, the 18-year-old who was arguably the best player at Euro 2024. He suffered a hamstring injury at Barcelona in April, but head coach Luis de la Fuente has confirmed his recovery is going well and he is expected to be fit for Spain’s opening game against Cape Verde on June 15.
Spain’s group (H) also contains Saudi Arabia and Uruguay, a favourable draw. The Opta model gives them a 75.3 percent chance of topping their group and a 52.1 percent chance of reaching the quarter-finals.
Verdict: Strong value at current odds. Best outright pick in the tournament.
France (5/1)
France are FIFA’s top-ranked team in the world and co-favourites with Spain. Prediction markets from Polymarket and Kalshi both give France approximately a 17 percent chance of winning. They were World Cup finalists in 2022, losing to Argentina on penalties.
France’s squad is packed with elite talent. Kylian Mbappe leads the attack after a difficult season at Real Madrid, and the depth of their squad across all positions is arguably the best in the world. They are placed in Group I with Senegal, Iraq, and Norway, which is navigable.
One concern: France have a tendency to underperform their talent in major tournaments, most notably being eliminated by Switzerland on penalties at Euro 2020.
Verdict: Deserving co-favourite. World-class squad depth but tournament temperament is a worry.
England (6/1)
England are the third favourite and arrive with a genuinely competitive squad. They finished as runners-up at Euro 2024, losing to Spain in the final, and have improved significantly under Thomas Tuchel. England are in Group L with Croatia, Ghana, and Panama, a very manageable path through the group stage.
BetMGM data shows England are the second most backed team, with 9.9 percent of all bets placed on them to win the tournament. Fan enthusiasm is real, but England’s history of tournament exits on penalties remains a psychological hurdle.
Verdict: Solid top-three pick with a gentle group draw. Worth including in each-way bets or accumulators.
Brazil (7/1)
Brazil are the most successful nation in World Cup history with five trophies, but they have not won since 2002. New coach Carlo Ancelotti brings fresh optimism, and the squad features Vinicius Jr and Raphinha as the main attacking threats.
Brazil are in Group C alongside Morocco, Haiti, and Scotland, making them strong favourites to progress. The return of a top club manager in Ancelotti is a genuine boost. However, Brazil have exited in the quarter-finals in both 2018 and 2022.
Verdict: Good value at 7/1 for a historically great team that is long overdue a title. Ancelotti is the difference-maker.
Argentina (8/1)
Argentina are the defending champions and Lionel Messi will be at his sixth and almost certainly final World Cup. No team has won back-to-back World Cups since Brazil in 1962, but this Argentine side has a clear tactical identity and mental resilience that goes far beyond Messi.
Julian Alvarez and Lautaro Martinez provide goals even when Messi is not at his best. ESPN describe Argentina as having an innate ability to compete and note they are a consolidated team rather than a collection of individuals. Their group (J) includes Algeria, Austria, and Jordan, an easy path through.
Verdict: Longer odds than they deserve. Messi’s farewell motivation factor is real. Worth a small bet at 8/1.
What Betting History Tells Us About World Cup Favourites
One of the most useful things you can know before placing a World Cup bet is simple: the pre-tournament favourite almost never wins. The pre-tournament favourite has won the trophy only once in the last six World Cups. That statistic should inform how much of your budget you put on Spain or France to lift the trophy.
Consider the pattern: Spain entered the 2014 tournament as defending world champions and back-to-back European champions, yet they were eliminated in the group stage. Germany won in 2014 but crashed out of the 2018 group stage as defending champions. Reputations count for less in a short, high-pressure knockout tournament than they do across a full league season.
Every World Cup title has gone to either a European or South American nation across all 22 tournaments, so betting on Spain, France, England, Brazil, or Argentina to win is at least betting within the historically correct bracket.
The tournament’s expansion to 48 teams also changes the landscape. More games, a new league phase format before the knockouts, and greater potential for fatigue in the later rounds all add uncertainty. Bookmakers openly acknowledge this difficulty, with no team given greater than a 17 percent chance of winning.
Dark Horse and Value Picks for 2026 World Cup Betting Tips
If you are looking beyond the big five favourites for value, two teams stand out.
Portugal at 11/1: Cristiano Ronaldo is at what will almost certainly be his final World Cup, and tournament experience combined with personal motivation can be a powerful force. Portugal have talented players around Ronaldo including Bruno Fernandes, Bernardo Silva, and Joao Felix. At 11/1 the value is reasonable for a team that could realistically reach the semi-finals.
Germany at 12/1: Germany’s recent underperformance has pushed their odds out to a point where the value is attractive. A nation with four World Cup titles and a culture of tournament football does not forget how to win overnight. They are placed in Group E against Curacao, Ivory Coast, and Ecuador, which gives them a clean route into the knockouts.
Both Morocco (2022 semi-finalists) and Japan represent genuine outsiders worth watching, though at very long odds, small speculative bets only make sense if you have already covered the main contenders.
Expert Pick: Our Prediction for Who Will Win the 2026 World Cup
OUR TOP PICK: Spain to Win the 2026 World Cup
Spain at 4/1 to 9/2 is our top outright selection. The combination of being reigning European champions, having the most favourable group draw of any top contender, and possessing the Opta supercomputer’s highest win probability of 16.1 percent makes them the standout pick.
The Lamine Yamal injury scare appears to be resolving positively. Spain’s coach has confirmed he is expected to be fit for their opening game on June 15, and the Opta model already builds in some uncertainty around his availability. Yamal is expected to play alongside Mikel Oyarzabal and Nico Williams in Spain’s front three.
Spain’s squad depth beyond Yamal is exceptional: Pedri, Gavi, and Dani Olmo in midfield, Nico Williams on the wing, and a defensive unit built around tournament experience. They topped their group in 75.3 percent of Opta simulations and made the final in 25.6 percent of projections.
As a second string, Argentina at 8/1 offers excellent value. Backing the defending champions at odds longer than a team with their pedigree and squad quality typically commands is a smart position to take.
5 Simple Rules for New Bettors: 2026 World Cup Betting Tips
1. Do not put all your money on the favourite. Spain at 4/1 is the likeliest winner according to the models, but that still means they fail to win in roughly 83 percent of simulations. Spread your bets across two or three contenders.
2. Compare odds across bookmakers before you bet. The difference between +450 and +500 on France may seem small, but on a $50 bet that is the difference between $225 and $250 in profit. Always shop around.
3. Consider each-way bets on longer shots. Betting Germany or Portugal each-way gives you value without needing them to win the whole thing.
4. Watch the injury news. Odds shift fast when key players are injured or return to fitness. Lamine Yamal’s fitness update moved Spain’s odds noticeably within a single week. Staying informed gives you an edge before the market adjusts.
5. Set a budget and stick to it. Outright tournament bets are fun but most of them do not win. Decide how much you are comfortable losing before you start, and treat any winnings as a bonus, not an expectation.
Odds Comparison by Bookmaker: Quick Reference
Here is a written breakdown of the best available odds on the top five contenders, based on lines from FanDuel, BetMGM, and DraftKings as of June 3, 2026.
Spain: Best price +475 available at ESPN BET. FanDuel offer +450 and BetMGM +460. Kalshi prediction market gives Spain a 16.9 percent implied probability of winning.
France: Best price +500 at BetMGM. FanDuel sit at +480. Kalshi gives France the highest probability of any team at 17.1 percent, fractionally ahead of Spain.
England: Best price +650 at FanDuel, notably better than BetMGM’s +600. England backers should use FanDuel for the most value on their stake.
Brazil: Best price +750 at FanDuel versus +700 at BetMGM. The difference of +50 adds up meaningfully on larger bets. Kalshi gives Brazil a roughly 9 percent chance.
Argentina: Uniformly priced at +800 across FanDuel, BetMGM, and DraftKings. No significant bookmaker discrepancy, making this a straightforward market to bet into.
Final Summary: Who Will Win the 2026 World Cup?
Based on current bookmaker odds, prediction market data from Polymarket and Kalshi, squad analysis, and historical World Cup patterns, here is the short version of everything above.
Spain at 4/1 to 9/2: The best outright bet. Reigning European champions, most favourable group draw, and the Opta supercomputer’s top-rated team. If Lamine Yamal is fully fit from the start, they are the team to beat.
France at 5/1: Deserving co-favourite with the world’s top-ranked squad. Slightly undercut by their inconsistent tournament history relative to squad quality.
Argentina at 8/1: The best value bet in the outright market. Defending champions at longer odds than their quality deserves, with Messi’s final World Cup providing a once-in-a-generation motivation factor.
Check back daily during the tournament as odds and predictions are updated after every round of matches.
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