2026 World Cup Group Stage Predictions: All 12 Groups Analyzed
The 2026 FIFA World Cup is unlike any other tournament in history. For the first time, 48 nations have qualified, split across 12 groups of four teams. The group stage runs from June 11 to June 27, producing 72 matches before the knockout rounds begin. The top two teams from each group advance automatically, and the eight best third-placed finishers also progress, meaning 32 teams in total reach the new Round of 32.
For bettors and football fans, the group stage is where the clearest value lives. Quality mismatches are more common here than in knockout rounds, and data models have more confidence in predicting outcomes between well-understood opponents. This guide breaks down every group using the Opta supercomputer’s 25,000-simulation predictions, Fox Sports group odds, RotoWire projections, and current tournament outright prices from FanDuel Sportsbook and CBS Sports.
All prediction probabilities referenced in this article are drawn from the Opta Analyst’s pre-tournament supercomputer simulations as of June 3-4, 2026. All odds are sourced from FanDuel Sportsbook and Fox Sports as of June 5-7, 2026. Odds change frequently, so always verify current prices before placing any bet.
How the 2026 Group Stage Works: A Quick Guide for New Fans
Each group contains four teams. Every team plays the other three in their group once, for a total of three group-stage games each. Teams earn three points for a win, one point for a draw, and nothing for a loss. The top two teams in the group automatically qualify for the knockout stage. The eight best third-place teams from across all 12 groups also advance.
This is crucial for betting: because eight third-placed teams qualify, finishing third in your group is not automatically the end of the road. A team can lose two games and still advance if their results are good enough compared to other third-place finishes across the tournament.
Group A: Mexico, South Korea, South Africa, Czechia
Who will win Group A betting tips: Mexico and South Korea to qualify, Mexico to top the group.
Mexico entered as one of the three co-hosts and carried an enormous home-field advantage, particularly at the iconic Estadio Azteca in Mexico City. Co-hosts Mexico are favourites to progress to the knockout stages, doing so in 87.2% of pre-tournament simulations according to the Opta supercomputer. They have a 45% probability of winning the group outright.
South Korea are deemed the second most likely team to reach the Round of 32 from Group A, doing so in 70.1% of pre-tournament simulations. South Korea were the only unbeaten team in the AFC qualifiers for the 2026 World Cup, and this is their 11th consecutive appearance at the tournament, a streak stretching back to 1986. Czechia follows at 64.2% likelihood of qualifying.
South Africa, making their return to the World Cup, are the outsiders here. Mexico’s home support, especially at altitude in Mexico City, makes them dangerous in ways the raw numbers do not fully capture.
Betting verdict: Mexico to win Group A at short odds is a low-risk accumulator leg. South Korea to qualify offers reasonable value for those building group-stage combination bets.
To win the 2026 World Cup outright odds: Mexico +6000, South Korea +75000, Czechia +40000.
Group B: Canada, Switzerland, Qatar, Bosnia-Herzegovina
Who will win Group B betting tips: Switzerland to win the group, Canada to qualify second.
Group B is officially the weakest group at the entire 2026 World Cup according to the Opta Power Rankings. None of the four sides rank among the top 16 international teams in the world. Switzerland, ranked 17th in Opta’s Power Rankings, are the highest-ranked team in the group. They project 5.2 goals over their three group matches, one of the higher group-stage attacking totals for any second seed in the draw.
Canada are appearing at the finals for just the third time and carry strong home support as co-hosts. Canada are comfortable second favourites at roughly 70% to qualify, though Bosnia are close enough at 40% to make the second spot competitive.
Qatar, who hosted the 2022 World Cup, are considered the weakest side in the group. They are more likely to finish bottom of Group B at 47% probability than they are to qualify from it at 43.5%. Their games have historically produced goals: among sides who played at least ten games in the 2026 AFC World Cup qualifiers, Qatar’s games produced more goals per game than any other side at 3.6.
Betting verdict: This is the easiest group to predict. Switzerland to qualify is likely to be a very short-priced certainty. The interesting bet is Canada qualifying, which offers some value given the uncertainty about how they perform under pressure despite strong home support. Bosnia’s key man Edin Dzeko gives them an outside shot at second place.
Group winner odds (Fox Sports): Switzerland -125, Canada +200, Bosnia +500, Qatar +3000.
Group C: Brazil, Morocco, Haiti, Scotland
Who will win Group C betting tips: Brazil to win the group, Morocco to qualify in second.
Brazil are among the clearest group favourites anywhere in the tournament. They tipped Group C in 60.2% of Opta supercomputer simulations. Brazil are the only team to have participated in every World Cup since 1930, hold a record five titles, and arrive under new manager Carlo Ancelotti, one of the greatest club coaches in football history.
Morocco are the most dangerous African side in the tournament. They are the reigning AFCON champions after the 2025 edition and produced a flawless qualifying campaign by winning all eight matches. Their remarkable fourth-place finish at the 2022 World Cup remains the best performance by an African nation in tournament history. Morocco progressed from the group stage in 88.7% of Opta simulations and came first in 28.6% of them.
Scotland are making their first World Cup appearance since 1998 and are genuine underdogs in a very difficult group. Haiti are making their second ever World Cup appearance.
The standout fixture for the entire first week of the tournament is Brazil vs Morocco on June 13. It is a preview of a potential knockout round drama.
Betting verdict: Brazil to qualify at near-certainty prices makes them a strong accumulator selection. The interesting angle is whether to back Morocco to top the group at decent odds, given their form and the fact that Brazil have underperformed at recent World Cups despite their squad quality.
To win the 2026 World Cup outright odds: Brazil +850, Morocco +5500, Scotland +20000.
Group D: United States, Paraguay, Australia, Turkey
Who will win Group D betting tips: The most unpredictable group at the tournament.
This is officially the group with the tightest distribution of team quality according to Opta Power Ratings. It is the only group in the entire tournament with no side ranked outside the top 50 in Opta’s Power Rankings. Turkey rank 20th, Australia 28th, Paraguay 30th, and co-hosts United States 36th. The gap between the best and worst team in Group D is just 6.5 Opta Power Rating points, the smallest of any group.
The Opta supercomputer gives the United States a 77% chance of qualifying, with a 32.4% likelihood of topping the group. The US have reached the knockout stage in each of their last three World Cup participations in 2010, 2014, and 2022, and playing at home creates enormous crowd support.
Turkey is the most dangerous outsider. They are making just their third World Cup appearance after 1954 and 2002. In their 2002 run, Turkey finished third in the tournament. They are a physically powerful, well-organized side with genuine upside.
Paraguay and Australia both have a realistic shot at second place. Australia’s set-piece expertise is a significant weapon in a balanced group: all five of Craig Goodwin’s assists during qualifying came from set-pieces including corners and free-kicks.
Betting verdict: Group D is the group where upsets are most likely. The US should qualify, but Turkey to win the group offers genuine value. Avoid betting on the specific finishing positions here given the genuine four-way uncertainty.
To win the 2026 World Cup outright odds: US +5500, Turkey +8000, Australia +250000, Paraguay +22500.
Group E: Germany, Curaçao, Ivory Coast, Ecuador
Who will win Group E betting tips: Germany to win the group, Ecuador or Ivory Coast to qualify second.
Germany entered Group E with the largest quality gap over their opponents of any top seed in the tournament. The Opta Power Rating difference between Germany at 89.6 and Curaçao at 49.5 is 40.1 points, the biggest gap between the best and worst team in any group at the 2026 World Cup.
Germany are one of the pre-tournament contenders at +1300 to win the World Cup. The Opta supercomputer gives Germany a 5.1% chance of winning the entire tournament, placing them in the third tier of contenders alongside Portugal and Brazil.
The race for second in Group E is between Ecuador and Ivory Coast, both of whom qualified through difficult paths. Ivory Coast did not qualify for either of the last two World Cups and have never made it out of the group stage. Ecuador are a more experienced World Cup side and offered at +10000 to win the tournament outright.
Curaçao are making their first World Cup appearance and are not expected to trouble Germany.
Betting verdict: Germany to win Group E is the closest thing to a certainty in the draw. The value bet is which Ivory Coast or Ecuador takes second. Ecuador’s recent history as group-stage qualifiers gives them a slight edge in the data.
To win the 2026 World Cup outright odds: Germany +1300, Ecuador +10000, Ivory Coast +15000.
Group F: Netherlands, Japan, Sweden, Tunisia
Who will win Group F betting tips: Netherlands to qualify first, Japan and Sweden to fight for second.
Netherlands are Group F favourites, with the Opta supercomputer giving them a 48.2% chance of finishing first. Even if they fail to do that, their 88.2% chance of qualifying suggests they will advance without too much difficulty.
The most interesting contest in Group F is between Japan and Sweden. Japan are genuine dark horses in this tournament at +4500 to win the World Cup outright, and with good reason. They have beaten Germany and Spain in recent World Cup history and play a well-organized, disciplined style that causes problems for bigger nations. Sweden qualified through the European play-off path after a poor qualifying campaign where they failed to win any of their six regular group matches. Their presence in this group creates an opportunity for Japan and even Tunisia to compete for second place.
Tunisia have never advanced out of the group stage but conceded fewer goals than any other side in the 2022 World Cup group stage, conceding just one. Their defensive organisation will again test opponents in Group F.
Betting verdict: Netherlands to win Group F at short odds is a safe accumulator leg. Japan to qualify in second is the value pick here, given their tournament history against European sides and Sweden’s weakness in qualifying.
To win the 2026 World Cup outright odds: Netherlands +1700, Japan +4500, Sweden +17500, Tunisia +250000.
Group G: Belgium, Egypt, Iran, New Zealand
Who will win Group G betting tips: Belgium to win the group, Egypt to qualify second.
Belgium are favourites to progress from Group G in 89.6% of Opta supercomputer simulations. They are expected to qualify as group winners in more than half of all simulations at 51.9%. Belgium’s so-called Golden Generation era may have passed, but Kevin De Bruyne remains one of the best midfielders in world football and gives them consistent quality.
The key fixture to watch is Belgium vs Egypt, which will pit De Bruyne against Mohamed Salah, two of the most recognizable players in the world on the same pitch. Egypt are the second favourites to qualify from this group.
Neither Iran nor New Zealand have ever made it past the first round of the FIFA World Cup. New Zealand are making a surprise appearance after going through the OFC qualification route.
Betting verdict: Belgium to win Group G is close to a formality in the data. The second spot is more open than it looks. Egypt’s big-game players including Salah and their Premier League-based squad give them a meaningful edge over Iran and New Zealand, but they are inconsistent performers at major tournaments.
To win the 2026 World Cup outright odds: Belgium +2200, Egypt +35000.
Group H: Spain, Uruguay, Cape Verde, Saudi Arabia
Who will win Group H betting tips: Spain to win the group, Uruguay to qualify in second.
This is one of the most one-sided groups in the tournament. Spain have a 98.5% chance of reaching the knockout stages, the highest of any team in the entire 2026 World Cup according to the Opta supercomputer. They are expected to top Group H in 75.3% of simulations.
Uruguay, at 84.3%, are deemed the team most likely to join Spain in the next round from Group H. Uruguay are a physically powerful, experienced South American side with tournament pedigree. They finished fourth at the 2010 World Cup and regularly make the knockout rounds.
Saudi Arabia made global headlines when they beat Argentina in the 2022 group stage. They make the knockout stage in 39.9% of simulations here, and with Salem Al Dawsari as a threat, they cannot be completely dismissed. Cape Verde are making their debut at the expanded 48-team World Cup. They would be the first African team since Ghana in 2006 to progress from their group in their maiden appearance, doing so in 32.9% of simulations.
The most significant uncertainty here is the fitness of Lamine Yamal. Spain’s coach De la Fuente has stated his confidence that Yamal will be ready, but the supercomputer notes his hamstring issue could affect Spain’s opening games.
Betting verdict: Spain to qualify is the safest selection in any group at the tournament. Uruguay to qualify second is well-supported by the data. The Saudi Arabia upset special is a long-shot worth a small stake given what they did in 2022 against Argentina, who were a similarly-priced favourite at the time.
To win the 2026 World Cup outright odds: Spain +450, Uruguay +6000, Saudi Arabia +250000.
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Group I: France, Norway, Senegal, Iraq
Who will win Group I betting tips: France to qualify, but this is the toughest group for a top contender.
Group I is officially the hardest group at the entire 2026 World Cup based on average Opta Power Rankings. It is the only group with three teams ranked inside the top 25, with France ranked second in the world, Norway at 25th, and Senegal at 21st. Even Iraq, ranked 62nd, showed their quality in a 1-1 draw with Spain the week before the tournament began.
France have the second-best chance of winning the entire tournament at 13.0% in Opta simulations, but their group is so difficult that they rank only sixth among all 48 teams for probability of reaching the Round of 32, doing so in 95.3% of simulations. This means there is a near-5% chance France exit in the group stage, an extraordinary figure for the world’s top-ranked nation.
Norway, powered by Erling Haaland, are the most dangerous second team in any group at this tournament. Haaland was the top scorer in European qualifying with 16 goals and is one of the most lethal strikers in world football. Senegal are the reigning AFCON runners-up and one of the most dangerous African sides at this tournament.
The final game of the group, France vs Norway, is one of the most anticipated matches in the entire group stage.
Betting verdict: France to qualify is still very likely, but the price should reflect the genuine difficulty of this group. Norway to qualify in second ahead of Senegal is the most interesting group-stage betting debate of the tournament. Haaland’s goal record makes Norway credible, but Senegal have the better tournament pedigree. Norway at +3300 to win the tournament outright is the best dark horse value in the draw given Haaland’s presence.
To win the 2026 World Cup outright odds: France +480, Norway +3300, Senegal +15000, Iraq +250000.
Group J: Argentina, Algeria, Austria, Jordan
Who will win Group J betting tips: Argentina to win the group, Austria to qualify in second.
Argentina are defending champions and the only team rated as more likely than not to win their group in every model, doing so in 73.0% of Opta simulations. Only Spain and Brazil have a higher probability of qualifying from their respective groups.
Argentina’s squad is led by Lionel Messi, making what is widely expected to be his final World Cup appearance. With Messi complemented by two high-profile strikers still in their prime in Lautaro Martinez and Julian Alvarez, Argentina should not be short of goals. Their biggest challenge comes from Austria, who recorded a PPDA (opposition passes per defensive action) value of 7.1 in the UEFA qualifiers, the lowest among all nations, meaning they press harder than any other side in European football.
Algeria qualified through CAF qualifying and have a genuine chance of making the knockouts from this group. Jordan are the clear outsiders.
Betting verdict: Argentina winning Group J is straightforward. Austria to qualify second is an interesting bet, given their pressing quality and the fact that Algeria, while talented, lack the European tactical sophistication of an Austrian side that eliminated Italy from qualifying.
To win the 2026 World Cup outright odds: Argentina +950, Austria +10000, Algeria +25000.
Group K: Portugal, Colombia, DR Congo, Uzbekistan
Who will win Group K betting tips: Portugal to win the group, Colombia to qualify in second.
Group K is the second-hardest group at the 2026 World Cup according to Opta Power Rankings. It is the only pool containing two sides inside the top 10 of the Opta Power Rankings: Colombia ranked 6th and Portugal ranked 9th. This is a genuinely tough group despite the presence of DR Congo and Uzbekistan as clear outsiders.
Portugal are among the tournament favourites at +900 to win the World Cup outright. Cristiano Ronaldo seeks the one major honour missing from his collection and arrives at what is almost certainly his final World Cup. Portugal are heavy favourites to win Group K at -215 with Fox Sports. Their biggest challenge comes from Colombia on the final matchday.
Colombia has quietly become one of South America’s most dangerous sides. They were Copa America runners-up in 2024, losing only to Argentina in extra time. Luis Diaz at Bayern Munich is one of the most exciting wingers in world football, and the Opta Power Rankings place Colombia ahead of several European giants at sixth in the world.
The Colombia vs Portugal clash on the final matchday could determine who tops the group. Both teams could realistically win it.
DR Congo returned to the World Cup after 52 years. Uzbekistan are making their debut, with nearly their entire squad playing club football domestically.
Betting verdict: Portugal to qualify is near-certain. Colombia qualifying second is strongly supported by the data. The value bet for the brave is Colombia to top the group, given they have a realistic shot at finishing above Portugal if results go their way in the opening games.
Group winner odds (Fox Sports): Portugal -215, Colombia +240, DR Congo +1400, Uzbekistan +3500.
Group L: England, Croatia, Ghana, Panama
Who will win Group L betting tips: England to win the group, Croatia to qualify second
England has the third-best chance of winning the entire 2026 World Cup at 11.2% in the Opta model. They are heavily favoured to top Group L, doing so in 67.5% of simulations. England projected the highest qualification probability of any team in the tournament at 98% according to RotoWire’s projections, with 6.1 goals and 4.0 projected assists across their group-stage matches.
England is powered by one of the strongest generations in their history. Harry Kane, Jude Bellingham, and Declan Rice form a core that has already carried the nation to the Euro 2024 final. Their group offers a comfortable path to the knockouts.
Croatia are a clear second at 65% to qualify according to RotoWire projections and project 4.6 goals and 3.1 assists. The 2018 World Cup runners-up remain a dangerous, experienced side despite an aging squad. Luka Modric is expected to feature in what would be his final World Cup.
Ghana have a realistic chance of qualifying, particularly with Antoine Semenyo having scored 17 Premier League goals in the 2025-26 season. Panama’s one previous World Cup in 2018 was in a group with England and they conceded 11 goals while struggling with an expected goals against average of 2.3 per game.
Betting verdict: England to win Group L at heavy odds-on pricing makes them the strongest accumulator leg of any major contender in the tournament. Croatia to qualify second is a solid value pick. Ghana as a third-place qualifier is worth a speculative small stake in boosted-odds markets.
Group winner odds (Fox Sports): England -280, Croatia +340, Ghana +1100, Panama +4000.
Who Will Win the 2026 World Cup Betting Tips: Groups Summary and Best Bets
Now that we have analyzed all 12 groups, here is the full picture for bettors.
The clearest group-stage certainties: Spain in Group H at 98.5% and England in Group L at 98% qualification probability are the two safest individual bets in the entire tournament. Germany in Group E and Brazil in Group C are the next clearest qualifiers.
The best value group winners: Colombia to top Group K offers genuine value against Portugal. Norway has a compelling case to take points off France in Group I. Turkey disrupting Group D is the most likely upset scenario for any group containing a top-seeded nation.
The most dangerous group for a major team: Group I is the only group where a legitimate World Cup favourite faces a real statistical risk of elimination. France’s 4.7% chance of group-stage exit is the single biggest risk factor for any of the top eight tournament favourites.
The best dark horse groups: Group C’s Morocco and Group F’s Japan are the two best-supported outsider teams by the data. Both have shown in recent tournaments that they can compete with and beat major European sides. Japan at +4500 is the single best value bet in the outright tournament market if you are willing to take a risk.
The 2026 World Cup group stage runs from June 11 to June 27. With 12 groups and 72 matches in 17 days, there will be constant opportunities to find value as odds shift based on early results, team news, and injury updates. Revisit betting markets after each round of group-stage games as odds will move significantly following matchday one and matchday two results.
Full 2026 World Cup Outright Odds (FanDuel Sportsbook, via CBS Sports, as of June 6-7, 2026):
Spain +450, France +480, England +650, Brazil +850, Portugal +900, Argentina +950, Germany +1300, Netherlands +1700, Belgium +2200, Norway +3300, Colombia +4000, Japan +4500, Morocco +5500, USA +5500, Mexico +6000, Uruguay +6000, Switzerland +7500, Turkey +8000, Croatia +8000, Ecuador +10000, Austria +10000, Ivory Coast +15000, Senegal +15000, Sweden +17500, Canada +20000, Scotland +20000, Paraguay +22500, Algeria +25000, Egypt +35000, Ghana +40000, Czechia +40000, Bosnia and Herzegovina +40000, South Korea +75000, Iran +100000.
All odds sourced from FanDuel Sportsbook, Fox Sports, and CBS Sports as of June 5-7, 2026. All simulation probabilities are from Opta Analyst’s pre-tournament supercomputer running 25,000 simulations, accurate as of June 3-4, 2026. Odds and probabilities are subject to change. Please gamble responsibly and only bet what you can afford to lose. If gambling is causing you difficulty, contact a licensed support service in your region.
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