The 2026 FIFA World Cup is well into its group stage, and if you have been following the action across the United States, Canada, and Mexico, you already know this tournament is delivering drama by the truckload. Spain drew with Cape Verde as a massive favorite. Portugal stumbled against DR Congo. Belgium could not beat Iran. This is the perfect environment for smart bettors who know how to read the market and the form book.

This page is updated every single day during the tournament. Bookmark it and come back before every matchday for the latest tips, odds comparisons, team news, and analysis written in plain language that anyone can follow, even if you have never placed a football bet before.

How to Read Betting Odds (Quick Guide for New Bettors)

Before we get into the picks, here is a simple breakdown for anyone new to betting.

When you see odds like +700 or -400 (American format used by most US sportsbooks), here is what it means. A team at -400 means you need to bet 400 dollars to win 100 dollars profit. That team is a heavy favourite. A team at +700 means a 100 dollar bet returns 700 dollars profit. That team is a big underdog.

In decimal format (common outside the US), odds of 1.22 mean you multiply your stake by 1.22 to get your total return. So a 10 dollar bet at 1.22 returns 12.20 dollars total.

The key rule is simple: favourites are more likely to win, but they pay less. Underdogs are less likely to win, but they pay much more. Good betting means finding situations where the likely outcome is not being reflected fairly in the price.

Today’s 2026 World Cup Betting Tips – Tuesday, June 23

Today features four matches across two different groups. Here is a full breakdown of every game, with tips backed by form, statistics, and current market odds.

 Who Will Win the 2026 World Cup Betting Tips – Outright Market

Before we go match by match, let us look at the big picture. Understanding the outright winner market helps you place smarter bets on individual games because you can see which teams the market trusts overall.

According to FanDuel Sportsbook as of June 22, the current outright winner odds are as follows. France lead the market at +390, followed by Spain at +500, England at +600, Argentina at +700, Portugal at +1200, Germany at +1200, Brazil at +1300, and Netherlands at +1600. Further down, Norway sit at +3000, the United States at +3300, Morocco at +3300, Japan at +4000, and Mexico at +4500.

France overtook Spain at the top of the market after their strong 3-1 win over Senegal, with Kylian Mbappe scoring twice. Spain, despite stumbling to a 0-0 draw against Cape Verde in their opener, recovered with a 4-0 win over Saudi Arabia and remain the second choice. England have climbed to +600 after a dominant 4-2 win over Croatia.

One stat that should interest bettors is this: according to Covers.com, no nation has successfully defended the World Cup title since Brazil in 1958 and 1962. Defending champions Argentina are now priced at +700, and with Lionel Messi at 38 years old, the market is reflecting genuine doubt about whether he can carry them deep into this tournament again.

For value hunters, Norway at +3000 represents one of the more interesting long-shot options. Erling Haaland is a guaranteed goal threat, and Norway have not appeared at a major championship in 26 years, meaning they are approaching this tournament with fresh energy and no psychological baggage.

Best 2026 World Cup Betting Tips Today – Match by Match

 Group K: Portugal vs Uzbekistan – Houston, 1pm ET

Tip: Portugal to Win and Over 2.5 Goals – Odds approximately 8/11 (1.73)

Portugal are under real pressure after a deeply disappointing 1-1 draw with DR Congo in their opening game. Roberto Martinez’s side managed just one shot on target in that match, which according to Racing Post’s analysis was the second lowest return of any team in the first round of matches. The expected goals (xG) numbers were even more embarrassing: DR Congo actually generated more xG than Portugal in that game (0.82 to 0.64), which tells you just how passive Portugal were.

This creates a betting situation that experienced gamblers know well. A major team under heavy public and media pressure, facing a much weaker opponent in their second group game. The pressure bounce-back effect is real and well-documented in tournament football.

Uzbekistan are making their debut at a World Cup finals and it has been a tough introduction. They lost 3-1 to Colombia in their opener, and before that they had lost warm-up games against Canada and the Netherlands, conceding two or more goals in each defeat. Their record shows just one win in their last five matches.

Looking at the raw quality gap: Portugal are ranked 45 places above Uzbekistan in the FIFA world rankings. Portugal have scored two or more goals in 10 of their last 14 matches. Uzbekistan have conceded in virtually every recent competitive fixture.

Uzbekistan will almost certainly set up in a deep defensive block and try to nick something on the counter. But the problem for them is that Portugal’s squad, when fully motivated and in full flow, has the individual quality on the wings and in midfield to break down even well-organised defences. Rafael Leao, Joao Felix, and Bruno Fernandes all offer the pace and creativity to create multiple chances.

The strong bet here is Portugal to win combined with over 2.5 goals in the match. Portugal need the goals to settle any nerves and demonstrate to Roberto Martinez’s critics that the team can perform. Uzbekistan, despite their defensive approach, have struggled to keep clean sheets. Five of Uzbekistan’s last seven matches have produced at least three goals according to Scores24.

The historical pattern from previous tournaments supports this too. When a major European side drops points unexpectedly in game one of a World Cup group, they almost always overperform in game two with greater urgency and intensity.

Key stats for this bet

Portugal have lost only one of their last 14 matches. Uzbekistan are on a three-match losing streak. Both teams failed to score in seven of Uzbekistan’s last 11 matches, but Portugal’s attacking quality gives them a big edge in breaking that pattern. Portugal averaged 4.1 goals per match in 2026 across all competitions.

Odds Comparison for Portugal vs Uzbekistan:

Portugal win (match result): approximately 1/5 to 2/9 across major sportsbooks (heavy favourite). Portugal win and over 2.5 goals: approximately 8/11 at Coral and Ladbrokes. Over 2.5 goals in the match: approximately 1.61 at most books. Uzbekistan +1.5 handicap (handicap bet meaning Uzbekistan must lose by no more than one goal): approximately 2.25 for a slight value play if you think Portugal win but not comfortably.

 Group L: England vs Ghana – Foxborough, 4pm ET

Tip: England to Win to Nil (England clean sheet) – Odds approximately 10/11 (1.91)

England started their 2026 World Cup campaign in spectacular fashion. A 4-2 win over Croatia was the kind of performance that immediately moved them up the outright market from +700 pre-tournament. Thomas Tuchel’s side managed 20 shots in that match, with more than half on target. The directness and confidence of that performance stands in stark contrast to England’s historically cautious tournament performances.

Ghana, meanwhile, needed a 95th-minute goal from Caleb Yirenkyi to scrape a 1-0 win over Panama in their opener. According to Racing Post, Yirenkyi’s winner was only Ghana’s second shot on target in the entire match. That is an exceptionally low attacking output.

Ghana also face significant squad concerns heading into this game. Their first-choice goalkeeper Lawrence Ati-Zigi went off injured at half-time against Panama. Thomas Partey, one of their most experienced and reliable midfielders, was denied a visa for the first match and his availability here depends on administrative resolution. Without Partey and with an uncertain goalkeeper situation, Ghana’s team is not at its strongest.

England, on the other hand, have the full squad available and Harry Kane is in remarkable club form. According to Racing Post, Kane scored nine goals in his last five appearances for Bayern Munich and England before this tournament. England have also opened the scoring in 17 of their last 18 competitive matches, which tells you this is a team that sets the tempo and controls games from the front.

The clean sheet tip makes sense for a few reasons. Ghana lost five of their last seven internationals before their win over Panama. Their attack, despite the individual talent of Manchester City’s Antoine Semenyo, struggled to create chances against a physically unremarkable Panama side. Against an organised and confident England defence, they will find it even harder.

Both teams have scored in only three of England’s last 17 matches, which is a crucial stat for this tip. England have the depth and quality to keep things relatively controlled at the back, and Ghana simply do not have the firepower to trouble a team of England’s quality on current form.

Key stats for this bet:

England have received only six yellow cards in their last nine competitive games, showing a disciplined side that does not let games get chaotic. Ghana have lost five of their last seven internationals. Eight of Ghana’s last 11 matches produced no more than two goals total. England have opened the scoring in 17 of their last 18 competitive games.

Odds Comparison for England vs Ghana:

England win: approximately 3/13 (1.23) at most sportsbooks. The AI probability on Oddschecker gives England an 81% chance of winning. Draw: approximately 6/1 (7.00). Ghana win: approximately 7/1 (8.00). England to win to nil: approximately 10/11 to evens at most books. England -1.5 goals (Asian handicap, meaning England must win by 2 or more): approximately 11/10 for a more aggressive version of this tip.

Group L: Panama vs Croatia – Toronto, 7pm ET

Tip: Croatia to Win – Odds approximately 1/1 (2.00)

Croatia are one of the most consistent knockout-stage performers in recent World Cup history. They reached the final in 2018 and the third-place play-off in 2022. However, they were beaten 4-2 by England in their opener, which puts them in a must-win situation here against Panama.

Panama beat Ghana 1-0 in the other Group L fixture on matchday one, so they are not without hope. But the quality gap between Panama and Croatia is significant. Luka Modric and his supporting cast have experience in high-pressure World Cup games that Panama simply cannot match.

Croatia will be desperate to bounce back and keep their knockout hopes alive. That urgency, combined with their class advantage, makes them value at evens.

 Group K: Colombia vs DR Congo – Zapopan, 10pm ET

Tip: Colombia to Win – Odds approximately 8/13 (1.62)

Colombia have been one of the more impressive sides in the first round of matches. Their 3-1 win over Uzbekistan showed real clinical quality. They are an experienced, well-organised South American side that should manage this game against a DR Congo team that used most of their attacking energy in the dramatic draw with Portugal.

DR Congo were remarkable against Portugal, but repeating that level of performance against a much more organised defensive unit will be significantly harder.

 How to Win the 2026 World Cup Betting Tips – Best Value Bets Right Now

If you are looking at the tournament as a whole rather than just today’s matches, here are the best value propositions based on current form and odds.

France at +390 is the best pick among the top favourites. They have the deepest squad, the most dangerous striker in Kylian Mbappe, and they have now beaten Senegal convincingly. Their remaining group games (Norway and Iraq) are very manageable.

England at +600 represent the best value among the second tier. A 4-2 win over Croatia was a serious statement. Harry Kane’s form is exceptional and Tuchel has given this team attacking intent that previous England managers lacked.

Norway at +3000 is the best long shot in the tournament. Erling Haaland is the most dangerous centre-forward at this World Cup when fit and motivated. Norway have won all four of their matches coming into this tournament. If they survive the group stage, their knockout draw could be very kind.

 What Betting Markets Are Available at the 2026 World Cup?

For new bettors, here is a quick guide to the different markets you can use.

The match winner market is the simplest. You pick which team wins, or you can back the draw. The both teams to score market asks simply whether both sides will score at least once. This is popular because it removes the need to predict a winner.

The over/under goals market is about how many goals are scored in total. Over 2.5 means you need three or more goals for your bet to win. Under 2.5 means two goals or fewer. This is one of the most popular markets because it adds excitement to any match regardless of the winner.

Handicap betting is for when one team is a very heavy favourite. The favourite starts with a goal disadvantage, making the bet more interesting. For example, Portugal -1.5 means Portugal must win by two or more goals for your bet to win.

The goalscorer markets let you bet on which player will score at any point during the match. Kylian Mbappe, Harry Kane, and Erling Haaland are the three most popular options for tournament-wide golden boot betting.

2026 World Cup Betting Tips: Key Patterns from Previous Tournaments

Understanding patterns from recent World Cups helps you make smarter bets. Here are the most important ones.

Defending champions rarely retain the trophy. Argentina won in 2022. No team has successfully defended the title since Brazil in 1958 and 1962. This is why Argentina at +700 looks overpriced to value-focused bettors.

Host nations get a boost but are not guaranteed. Six host nations have won the World Cup at home including France in 1998 and Argentina in 1978. The USA, Canada, and Mexico all enjoy home advantage at this tournament, but only Mexico at +4500 has a squad capable of making a deep run, and even that requires everything to go right.

Teams that lose their first game rarely win the tournament. Of the last ten World Cup winners, all of them either won or drew their first group game. This puts Portugal under real pressure after their draw with DR Congo and gives you context for why their odds have drifted to +1200.

Early upsets create betting value in the next match. When a big team draws or loses unexpectedly, the market often overreacts. Spain’s draw with Cape Verde pushed their odds out, and smart bettors who backed them at +550 before their 4-0 win over Saudi Arabia made solid returns. Keep this pattern in mind throughout the group stage.

Responsible Betting Reminder

Betting on football should always be done for entertainment. Set a budget before each matchday and stick to it. Never chase losses by placing bigger bets to recover money. The odds on this page reflect real market prices at time of publication and will change before kick-off. Always compare odds across multiple sportsbooks to ensure you get the best available price before placing any bet.

If you are in the United States, gambling helpline resources are available by calling 1-800-GAMBLER. You must be 21 or older (18 in some states) to place bets legally.