The race for the Capocannoniere is one of the most exciting parts of every Serie A season. It is a personal battle fought within a team of who has the skill to score the most goals and keep a consistent record till the end of the season. Last year, the highest goal scorer battle was won decisively by Napoli player, Mateo Retegui. But with his move to Saudi Arabia, the race for the 2025/26 Capocannoniere is wide open.
This season is no different, there are new tactics, fresh partnerships, and opportunities which will all play a part in deciding who finishes at the top of the scoring table. While a major transfer could still affect the results, the current contenders are already showing us that they might have a chance.
Based on the players stats, the respective teams, and overall fitness, these are the players we think are most likely to win the Capocannoniere in 2025 when the season concludes next May.
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Before we get into the top contenders for this season’s Capocannoniere, Lets analyse the top goal scorer for the 2024/2025 season – Mateo Retegui.
Mateo Retegui’s Stunning 2024/25 Season
In recent years, the Serie A goalscorer ranking has been dominated by established strikers such as Immobile, Osimhen and Lautaro Martinez. The real surprise of the 2024/25 season was Mateo Retegui, who won the top goalscorer accolade playing for Atalanta.
Mateo Retegui’s journey to becoming Serie A’s top scorer is a unique one. Unlike many stars who come through European youth academies, Retegui learned how to improve his skills in his native, Argentina. He spent the early years of his career playing for Boca Juniors and later Club Atlético Tigre, where he developed a reputation as a powerful shot. His time in the smaller clubs prepared him for a life changing football career in Italy.
The 2024-25 season belonged to Mateo Retegui. Despite being the same year that Napoli surprised everyone by winning the Scudetto, Retegui’s incredible goal haul for Atalanta was what truly grabbed the headlines. The Italian center-forward netted 25 league goals, a full six goals more than his closest competitor, to win the coveted Capocannoniere award. His performance was so impressive that it earned him a massive €65 million transfer to Saudi Pro League club Al-Qadsiah earlier this month.
What makes his achievement even more remarkable is that it was only his second season in Italy. His first year at Genoa was solid but unspectacular, with seven goals in 29 appearances, a period hampered by a three-month injury. Under manager Alberto Gilardino, he was asked to work hard in a pressing system, which required a lot of running and defensive effort. Even then, his natural talent was clear. He showed a real striker’s instinct inside the penalty area and a willingness to shoot whenever he saw a glimpse of the goal.
His move to Atalanta and manager Gian Piero Gasperini was the perfect next step. Gasperini’s system is famous for getting the best out of attackers, and Retegui was no exception. He has always been strong in the air, but at Atalanta, he sharpened his movement and finishing in the box. His 25 goals made him only the second Atalanta player ever to finish as Serie A’s top scorer, following in the footsteps of Filippo Inzaghi back in the 1996-97 season.
His departure to Saudi Arabia leaves a vacuum.
The Top Contenders for the 2025/26 Capocannoniere
Predicting a top scorer is always difficult before the season begins. A surprise transfer could still change everything. However, based on current squads and last season’s form, these five players stand out as the most likely candidates to win the award.
Jonathan David (Juventus)
The Canadian striker is a new face in Serie A, signed by Juventus on a free transfer after his contract at Lille ended. He scored 109 goals with 30 assists in 232 appearances and in the last Ligue 1 season he scored 16 goals. The 25-year-old immediately steps into a huge role as Juventus’s main goal threat following the departure of Dusan Vlahovic.
David brings a proven track record of goals from France. Even in what was considered his third-lowest scoring season at Lille, he still managed a respectable 16 league goals. His consistency in Ligue 1 was never in doubt. The big question for David is not about his quality, but about the team behind him. Juventus have often been criticized for a conservative style of play. Will they create enough clear chances for him to truly compete for the top scorer prize? If the team can provide the service, David has the clinical edge to be in the conversation.
Moise Kean (Fiorentina)
Fiorentina’s Moise Kean finished the 2024/25 season with 19 league goals, placing him second in the goalscoring charts behind Mateo Retegui. Undoubtedly his best year so far, marked by continuity and decisiveness, has raised expectations for the 2025/26 season.
He is currently among the players most considered to be the top scorer by Matchplug. His excellent form, established regularity at Fiorentina, and offensive capabilities make him a serious contender for the Capocannoniere.
Rafael Leao (AC Milan)
Last season was a disaster for AC Milan, who finished eighth for the first time in a decade. Part of the problem was a breakdown in the relationship between star winger Rafael Leao and the previous coaches.
Leao has never been a player known for massive goal numbers; his game is about speed, dribbling, and creating for others. However, Allegri’s new system, combined with Milan’s current lack of a world-class central striker, might force Leao to take on more scoring responsibility. If he can add more goals to his game without losing his creative spark, he has the sheer talent to challenge for the Capocannoniere. He is a dark horse, but a very dangerous one.
Romelu Lukaku (Napoli)
Romelu Lukaku won another Scudetto in his first season at Napoli, but it wasn’t his most efficient personal campaign. He scored 14 league goals, as the team often relied on other players like Scott McTominay to make a difference in attack.
The reason he ranks so high on this list is a simple name: Kevin De Bruyne. The Belgian playmaker’s arrival at Napoli could change everything for Lukaku. The two have a fantastic understanding from their years together with the Belgian national team. De Bruyne’s genius for providing perfect assists could be exactly what Lukaku needs to get back to his best goal-scoring form. If their connection works as well as it has for Belgium, Lukaku’s goal numbers are almost certain to go up.
Lautaro Martinez (Inter Milan)
It is almost impossible to imagine Lautaro Martinez having two quiet seasons in a row. The Argentine striker was the Capocannoniere winner in 2023/24, but his form dipped last season. He contributed to Inter’s failed title defense, scoring only 12 goals in 31 appearances and often looking off the pace.
That is why he is the favorite to bounce back. He is too good a player to stay down for long. With Inter expected to come into the new season angry and motivated to reclaim the title, Lautaro will be at the heart of everything they do. He is the main man, the captain, and the focal point of their attack. He knows how to score goals in Serie A, and he will be desperate to make up for last year’s disappointment. As of this writing, Marcus Thuram is the early leader in the clubhouse, having scored 2 goals in Inter’s first 2 matches.
While this is a very small sample size, it shows that the race is already on and that surprises can always happen in the long and thrilling marathon of a Serie A season.
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