A Monday Night Football showdown between the Cincinnati Bengals and Dallas Cowboys might’ve seemed like a marquee matchup when the Week 14 schedule dropped. By December, neither team is playoff-bound after disappointing 2024 seasons.
But every game has a purpose when it comes to betting. Whether you’re weighing the lofty spread or eyeing the Over on points, this matchup offers some intriguing angles.
Early Spread Lean
Cowboys +5.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
It is a mystery why the Bengals are seven-point favorites against anyone at the moment. Cincinnati isn’t exactly lighting the league on fire. They’ve lost three straight and picked up just one win since Week 8.
The Bengals’ offense has been productive. Recent point tallies of 27, 34, and 38 are definitely impressive. Joe Burrow and crew are doing their part, but with a defense sitting at 30th in EPA allowed per play, the offense doesn’t stand a chance most weeks. Cincinnati’s defense has allowed 113 points over their last three games. They’re getting carved up, whether it’s on the ground or through the air.
Then there’s the Dallas side. No, the Cowboys aren’t a juggernaut, and yes, they’re playing with backup QB Cooper Rush after Dak Prescott was ruled out for the season. But Dallas has been clicking offensively in recent weeks, putting up 27 points against Washington and 34 on the Titans.
More importantly, their defense is trending up. It hasn’t been pretty all year, but Dallas has jumped to 10th in EPA allowed per play since Week 10. That surge coincides with Micah Parsons’ return, and man, does he make a difference in their pass rush.
With the Cowboys at home and the Bengals traveling to Arlington off a gut-punch of a loss to Pittsburgh, I’m leaning toward Dallas +5.5. They’re rested, at home, and more balanced than Cincinnati right now.
Early Over/Under Lean
Over 49.5 (-108 at FanDuel)
Here’s where things get a bit wilder. If you were on the Over train earlier this week, when the total odds by FanDuel opened at 47.5, congratulations—that was a smart move. The line has already climbed to 49.5, and it wouldn’t shock me to see it hit 50 or higher before kickoff.
And honestly? I still like the Over at 49.5.
The Bengals are practically allergic to defense right now, and when it comes to explosive plays, they’re giving up big gains. Cincinnati has allowed 39 completions of 20+ yards this year and six chunk plays of 40-plus. Against a Dallas offense now fully realized under Cooper Rush, those numbers are begging for trouble.
But don’t doubt Cincinnati’s offense, either. Burrow is finding a rhythm with Ja’Marr Chase again, and that connection gives the Bengals the ability to turn any play into a home run. Meanwhile, Dallas’ secondary has been leaky against deep shots all season—allowing nine completions of 40+ yards, the fourth most in the NFL.
Both teams are trending Over this year, coming into this game with a combined Over/Under record of 17-7. If you’re betting this total, it’s Over or nothing for me.
What to Expect in Bengals vs. Cowboys
At the end of the day, this is one of those matchups where neither team is perfect, but both are compelling for bettors. The Bengals’ lopsided approach—elite offense paired with a disastrous defense—creates fireworks just about every week. Combine that with Dallas’ rising defensive form and steady offensive play under Rush, and Monday night has all the makings of a high-scoring, tight contest.
If you’re a spread player, this breakdown of the Bengals vs. Cowboys, complete with NFL betting tips will help you make smarter plays ahead of Monday night. The Cowboys getting five and a half points at home feels like the side to be on. Want action on the total? Over 49.5 still feels manageable.
No matter which angle you lean toward, just remember to bet smart, shop for the best lines, and enjoy the game.
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