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This season’s Europa League offers Arsene Wenger his last chance to win a European trophy as an Arsenal manager and also the last chance to win a trophy for the Gunners as he steps down from his role at the end of the season, yet the Gunners made the job of getting to the final more difficult for themselves last Thursday.
Atletico Madrid had been reduced to ten men in the first half and Alexandre Lacazette gave the Gunners the lead on the 61st minute, yet some shambolic defending meant the Gunners conceded an equalizer with just 8 minutes remaining. They would now need to win or at least get a high scoring draw in Madrid to progress, something their away form does not show could happen.
Atletico defeated Alaves 1-0 after the draw at the Emirates to make it two wins, three draws and two losses from their last seven competitive games. They have also made their home a fortress as they have not tasted defeat at the Wanda Metropolitana since their loss to Sevilla in January. They also impressively come into this match having not conceded a goal at home in 11 games, it is almost impossible to see the Gunners breaking that record.
Arsenal have six losses from their last nine away games, and they have not won any league game away from home this year, their fans won’t be overly optimistic, but they have a good away record in Europe this season.
There were two Red Bull sponsored teams in European competitions this season and many expected RB Leipzig to be the best among them. However, that wasn’t to be so as the Germans were eliminated from the Europa League at the last round by no other team than the Dmitri Payet inspired Marseille. If the French men eliminated Salzburg here, they would surely not be friends with the popular energy drink brand.
Marseille won the first leg 2-0 to put the Austrians under pressure to mount a come back yet again, but they are no strangers to comebacks. In the quarterfinals, they trailed 4-2 from the first leg against Lazio and even fell 1-0 behind at home, yet they mounted a shocking comeback to win 4-1 and eliminate the Italians 6-5 on aggregate, can they pull that off here again?
The Austrians have not been defeated at home in any competition since November 2016 and they have played 26 home games since then, winning 19 of them. They also have five wins from their last seven home games in this competition this season.
Marseille played a 1-1 draw against Angers at the weekend to make it six games without tasting defeat for them, with four of those matches ending in victory for them. They have also won four of their last 6 away games, however, they have only one win from their eight away games in this competition this season, losing four of those matches including their last visit to this stadium in the group stage.
Since they confirmed their safety, Doncaster have hit poor form, perhaps the fact that they have nothing to play for has made them complacent as they look forward to the new season.
Wimbledon on the other hand still have a battle on their hands. They are close to securing safety, so they need at least a draw from this game so they can relax their nerves ahead of next weekend. They drew 1-1 against the division’s likely champions the last time out and that should give them confidence ahead of this game.
This game does not have the making of a goal fest if for anything it is set to go down as a low scoring affair as both sides do not play the most attacking football. The hosts are struggling for goals at the moment, while the visitors have built their season around a defensive tactic and they need just a single point to confirm their safety.
Wimbledon’s draw against Wigan in their last match day means a draw would keep them in the division and they should get that here as they have mastered the art of defending well against the big teams.
The last game which Wimbledon won by 2-0 was the first time these teams have met before.
In the first leg of this semifinal, Real Madrid were not at their very best, yet they got the win they need to make this return leg theirs for the taking. Los Blancos fell behind 1-0 in Germany after Keylor Navas was easily beaten by Joshua Kimmich at the far post. However, they came back from the dead to win that game 2-1 thanks to a Marco Asensio winner. They would now look to get to their third successive final with another win here.
Zinedine Zidane rested star men like Christiano Ronaldo and Sergio Ramos in their weekend 2-1 win over Levante and he would be giving them the start here and hopes that their freshness would help them get to the finals. Bayern Munich did rest their star men too at the weekend and that could see this act by both managers having no bearing on the game.
Real Madrid do not have the best recent record at home. Los Blancos have failed to win more than once in their last four competitive home games, they have lost at home against Villarreal and Levante, losing on four occasions in their last 14 home games.
Bayern Munich have seven wins from their last nine competitive games. In the Champions League this season, they have won 8 of 11 games, and 13 of their last 14 away games in all competitions have ended in wins for them.
This would be the last clash between Jose Mourinho and Arsene Wenger as Arsenal boss with the French man expected to depart the Emirates when the season comes to an end. The 22 years that Wenger has spent with the Gunners has come with ups and downs, but he would want to end on a high note by getting one over his old foe, Mourinho and perhaps winning the Europa League too.
Jose Mourinho is looking to end the season in the second position as well as winning the FA Cup, the latter is remaining one game against Chelsea at Wembley. They got there by beating Spurs 2-1 last weekend, that win means they have won six of their last seven competitive games, West Brom being the only team to avoid a defeat in that time.
Arsenal should have given up on qualifying for the Champions League via the top four now and their focus would be on winning the Europa League, even that route won’t be an easy one for them. They drew against ten men Atletico Madrid on Thursday to set up and a tough away match for themselves in Spain. The Gunners have not won an away league game in their last five attempts, losing all, and they have also only won thrice away from home all season.
Everyone associated with Scottish football expected Celtic to seal their title win last weekend and avoid making this Old Firm derby the title decider. However, the defending champions surprising fell to a shock 2-1 loss at Easter Road to make this game even more important for both sides. A win here would help Celtic win the league in front of their own fans, but defeat would keep them waiting for another weekend at least.
Rangers are now within ten points of their host here thanks to their win over Hearts last weekend. They would so much love to stop Celtic from winning a second consecutive treble, but it seems to be only a matter of time before their host would wrap things, can they delay it here?
They both met earlier this year with Celtic winning 4-0, they have both netted 7 times in their two clashes this year and this could see a flurry of goals yet again. Rangers have scored 2.38 goals per away game this season, and they have scored in 94% of their away games this season.
Celtic have not lost any of their last 45 home league games.
Bayern Munich looked like they were heading for a treble this season as they had won the Bundesliga and qualified for the DFB Pokal final. However, their 2-1 home loss in the Champions League semifinal in midweek means they are set to miss out on that except they can pull off a win at the Bernabeu next week. With the Champions League return leg in mind, Jupp Heynckes could opt to play a weakened side here, with the in-form Sandro Wagner set to lead the lines for them.
Frankfurt lost their last league game at home 3-0 to Hertha Berlin, it would have served as a crushing blow to their hopes of making it into the top five, however, their fans wouldn’t be too disappointed with that result as they have sealed a place in the DFB Pokal in quite impressive fashion in the previous match day. This game offers Niko Kovac an opportunity to face his future employers and he would want to use this game as a dress rehearsal for the DFB Pokal final.
Bayern Munich won the reverse fixture when these sides met in December, and the Bavarians are unbeaten in 13 games against their visitors.
Liverpool were at their usual attacking best midweek as they went 5-0 up against AS Roma in their Champions Leagues semifinal first leg. They, however, lost concentration in the closing ten minutes and conceded 2 goals to give the Romans hope of another stunning comeback. Their Wednesday return leg against Roma in the Champions League could see many star men rested in this game, even at that it is hard to see Stoke City leave Anfield with even a point from this game.
The Reds have only two losses from 14 Premier League games this year, winning 9 of those games. They have failed to win at Anfield only once this year, winning 7 and drawing one home league game. They have netted 27 goals in those matches and only Manchester City have scored more league goals than them this season.
Stoke City have conceded 65 goals this season and they have managed to find the back of the net just 32 times all season round. The Potters are in relegation troubled waters with 4 points separating them from safety and three league games to go. They managed to get a point in their last league game at home to Burnley, but they are yet to win a league game since January and they have not won an away games since October.
Liverpool hope to close the gap on second-place Manchester United this weekend, but their European duties means they must manage priorities when they host relegation-threatened Stoke City.
Dilemmas for Klopp
Had Liverpool seen out Tuesday’s Champions League semi-final first leg with a five goal lead over AS Roma, they could put all their energies into this clash. Instead, the soft concession of two late goals puts the score at 5-2, meaning that Wednesday’s trip to Italy for the second leg takes precedence.
Jurgen Klopp’s side won’t be helped by the injury to Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain, who has recently excelled in a central role and is out with a long-term injury.
James Milner and Jordan Henderson might not want to play three 90-minute games in little over a week and with alternative central options limited, Klopp has hinted at switching to a 3-4-3 so that he only has to pick two midfielders rather than three.
Georginio Wijnaldum is likely to be one of them and with Emre Can and Adam Lallana injured, academy graduates Curtis Jones and Herbie Kane have an outside chance of making their first professional appearance.
Nathaniel Clyne could start over the in-form Trent Alexander-Arnold to get back to full fitness, having been out of competitive action for 10 months prior to April. Similarly, Andrew Robertson’s lung-busting qualities might be saved for Rome, making Alberto Moreno likely to play.
At least two of Danny Ings, Dominic Solanke and Ben Woodburn could start; although able, neither are unlikely to strike fear to quite the same extent that Sadio Mane, Roberto Firmino, and Mohamed Salah would.
Klopp will have to be creative with his team selection, whilst keeping enough quality on the pitch to secure victory.
The Shaqiri conundrum
Given that Xherdan Shaqiri has seven goals and six assists to his name this season, nobody could deny that he is Stoke City’s most technically gifted player. And yet, what he offers the Potters in possession perhaps masks what he doesn’t offer them without the ball.
The problem is not that Shaqiri doesn’t work hard at all – he will close down an opposing player if asked to – but with an apprehension that puts him at a disadvantage. Other withdrawn forwards, by contrast, would charge down defenders with the necessary vigour to either win the ball or significantly disrupt the rhythm of the opposing team. Shaqiri’s reluctance to do this means that Stoke find it harder to press effectively, which is a key requirement of a team battling relegation; especially for a trip to Anfield.
Whenever Shaqiri is at his best, his teammates play quality passes into his feet and then flood the final third with bold forward runs. Stoke are only able to do that for short bursts within games, because Paul Lambert’s demand for defensive focus means most players spend a lot of the time in their own half.
A case in point is Moritz Bauer: whether he plays on the right or left side of midfield, the utility man will spend a lot of time tracking back the opposition full-back so that Kurt Zouma or Erik Pieters, neither of whom are the quickest full-backs around, are not isolated two-on-one.
Winger Ramadan Sobhi has pace but perhaps not the technical accuracy to justify the early hype that surrounded him, while advanced forward Mame Biram Diouf must be more ruthless in front of goal than he was in Sunday’s 1-1 home draw with Burnley.
In another 1-1, which came at West Ham six days earlier, Joe Allen tended to run back into Stoke’s penalty area if a teammate gave the ball away and we can expect to see more of that at Anfield, to ensure that the centre-backs – especially Ryan Shawcross – are never asked to defend wide, open spaces.
That danger is partly why midfielder Badou N’Diaye, who has proved effective at breaking up play with his strong challenges, very rarely breaks into the final third.
The above would suggest that Stoke cannot give Shaqiri the support he needs in the 10 role. With Peter Crouch unlikely to become anything more than a super-sub, Lambert might be tempted to partner Diouf with Tyrese Campbell. The latter’s mobility would help Stoke both press with intensity and pose a threat in the transitional phases; otherwise, they risk giving Shaqiri a job that he simply does not have the appropriate skillset to do.
MatchPlug’s Prediction
We’re backing the 1-0 home win, which is 15/2 with Betway as of 25th April. While fiscipline won’t be a problem for Stoke, a second string Liverpool side will have quality in reserve.
Hoffenheim are in top form at the moment and it couldn’t have been a better time for them. They have netted 20 times in their last six league games, and they are unbeaten in their last 8 games ahead of this match. This run of form is currently the best in the division and it has reignited their push for a Champions League place yet again.
They defeated RB Leipzig 5-2 away from home in their last league game to take themselves to within 2 points of 4th placed Bayer Leverkusen, that should serve as a morale booster for them ahead of this game.
Hannover looked like they had found some much-needed form when they ended their run of five consecutive defeats and collected 4 points from two games. However, last weekend, Bayern Munich showed them why they have been winning the league by trashing them 3-0 at their own stadium. They have already secured themselves from automatic relegation, however, they can still fall into the relegation playoff spots if they don’t get good results from their remaining matches.
Hannover 96 won the reverse fixture 2-0 in December, but they have never won at Hoffenheim.
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