Here are our winning tips for 19th January 2018.
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Here are our winning tips for 19th January 2018.
What are you waiting for? sign up on Matchplug.com now and start winning.
We continue our series of articles on the best sports betting strategies both new and professional bettors can employ to improve their chances of winning.
In the previous part, we covered Focusing on one team and betting with not more than 2% of your total bankroll.
In this article, we look at two more strategies you should use if you want to boost your chances of winning especially in the long term.
If you take professional sports betting as a career, you may have to use some software like that being sold by Sports Insight and Swish Analytics to help you develop personal winning strategies.
These software come with a huge database of information that would otherwise be almost impossible for you to get to grips with. The information you would get from these databases includes Team vs team, Money Line range, opponents form, opponents rank, and favourite or underdog teams.
With this software, you can put a number of variables together and see how these teams play when they are up against a specific opponent and other trends that would be hidden from the public.
You would also have access to database calculators that would offer a couple of options when you want to bet on a certain match.
Why use Software
Because of the access to several tools today, professional bettors use software to narrow down variables, spot trends and come up with winning strategies.
I can be very tough initially when you begin to use these software programs because of the volume of information you would have to deal with.
However, if you spend some time playing around with it, you would quickly become a professional at using them.
With time, by using these software packages you will become great at spotting trends even without the use of the software.
What using software wouldn’t do for you
While the use of software helps us to gain advance statistical analysis of games, it does not guarantee that your bet would win. It only gives you access to small start that could improve your chances of winning the bet.
Another major flaw in using the software in betting is that it takes some of the fun out of sports betting.
Use ATS Record to Bet
Vegas lines determine one of the most used information about how teams perform against the spread (ATS).
Thus, finding ATS records is easier than any betting tip as most websites worldwide publish them across all sports.
For example, you could look up the Golden State Warriors who have an 18-13 win-loss record. This looks very promising on the eye, but you would be surprised to realize their ATS record is 12 – 19.
If you judge the Warriors only on their ATS record, they would not be an attractive bet.
What’s even better is that you can use trends to back up the ATS record.
But these trends can only be gotten when you work with advance software.
Why you should bet with ATS record
You should be with ATS because the goal of spread betting is to be able to guess correctly who is able to cover the spread.
While it is not advisable to ignore other stats, ATS should be one of the top criteria which determines your betting strategy.
What ATS Betting will not do for you
Looking at past ATS records is a useful exercise, but it doesn’t help much in predicting the future outcome of games. This is because every new opponent has the ability to present new challenges that would not be covered by how a team performs ATS in their previous matches.
If you want to make money as a bettor, you would realize sooner or later the role psychology plays in your chance of winning any bet. Do you know or believe that your mindset can affect your chances of winning? Is there a relationship between how you think and how profitable you would be as a bettor? Read on to know if you are in control of your actions or if they are in control of you.
We humans believe we are superior to other animals because of our ability to think rationally. As a matter of fact, the rational choice theory is what our whole economic theory is based on. This theory which states that in all situation people try to minimise their losses and maximise their gains only makes sense on paper.
Testing the rational choice theory
In Economics, alternatives are ordered by preferences based on the satisfaction derived from consuming them. For example, if we know that John loves pawpaw more than mangoes and loves mangoes more than apples, we can easily predict that he would go for a mango when asked to choose between mangoes and apples.
Now imagine a situation where John goes for the birthday party of his 8 years old niece. His sister takes a healthy approach to feeding their guests and decides to serve fruits instead of candies. The kids love the fruits so much that when John approaches the table to serve himself he realizes there are only two bowls of fruits left, one filled with sliced mangoes and another with an apple. As soon as reaches for her favorite, two kids come for the mangoes on the table.
John decides to teach the kids that it is good to always share what you have and divides the mangoes into their two bowls for them before taking the apple.
It is an irrational assumption to believe that because you told yourself you are going to make money betting means you would act accordingly.
John is an adult, and because he prefers the mango fruits, he could have kept them for himself while giving the apples to the kids. The behavioral scientist makes us understand that the satisfaction John derives from giving the mangoes to the kids is more than he would get if he had consumed them himself, so he decides to make the “irrational choice.”
Let us look at a different context. John is an over-spender, and two weeks before payday he has already overdrawn his pay. On his way to the library, a friend offers him a bowl of freshly cut apples, topped with Cinnamon.
His sweet tooth is urging him to accompany it with mango and vanilla ice cream, the problem is he would have to buy it himself. He decides to take just the offer albeit in frustration. What if this same scenario plays out on payday, John is now able to buy the mango and vanilla Ice cream he craves, do you think he would settle for just a free bowl of apple?
How Irrationality applies to betting
Behavioural scientist claim people do not act consistently with their rational axioms, but are they right? This question would require a long discussion, but the point to note here is that because you say you want something doesn’t mean you would act accordingly.
Context, available alternatives, goals, and timing are what choices are dependent on in real life. This makes blindly believing that you would act accordingly because you have told yourself that you want to make money in betting an irrational assumption. As a matter of fact, rationality has become a superpower because it is so rare.
Do you believe that it makes sense to bet over 3.5 goals on a team because they scored 5 goals in their last game against a bigger team and now face a smaller team? If you believe so, you are a victim of availability bias.
If you have ever found yourself increasing your stake after a series of losses because you feel is time for your luck to change, you have fallen victim of the gambler’s fallacy which is one of many mental flaws that bettors usually suffer from.
In fact, psychologists have discovered that there are many cognitive biases that are responsible for bettors losing money.
The only way to remedy this situation is to forget about overcoming these biases and focus all your energies on betting based on expected value rather than on unproven assumptions.
If you bet for entertainment purposes, you can go ahead and place bets based on assumptions, but if you want to make a living out of betting, don’t place another bet without first calculating its expected value.
Sports’ betting is one of the few forms of betting that gives you a chance to win big in the long haul and that’s what makes it unique.
Additionally, sports bettors get the privilege of watching the teams they bet on entertain them, although you would only enjoy watching a game when the team you bet on wins you the bet.
Regardless of whether you watch the game or not, to win in sports betting you need a good strategy, in this article we take you through some good strategies that would guarantee you winning most times.
Every single day there are several sports teams playing, and you would easily be tempted to bet on every one of them. Betting on any and every team is fine if you have a large bankroll and you are betting for the purpose of entertainment, however, if you want to make a living out of betting, you cannot learn what you need to succeed in the long term by betting on every team.
If you are a new bettor, we would advice you to choose one team and one sport to start betting on. This would allow you to learn more about that team and reduce the time you would otherwise use to research about them before betting on them.
Closely watch your chosen team to understand their players and managerial tendencies, as this would help give you an edge over the average bettor.
You would improve your chances of winning in sports betting when you choose a team in a sport and bet only on them until you have done the same research on another team.
Why focus on one team
By learning a lot about a single team, you give yourself a good chance of correctly predicting their game outcomes and even managerial decisions like substitutions.
Another advantage is that you would have more information about that team than most bookmakers which would make it easier for you to beat them at their own game.
Why you may not want to focus on a single team
Although it is exciting to win in betting, sticking to just one team can be very boring, it would take a lot of resistance to avoid the temptation of betting on other teams.
You would also miss some winnings from other teams that are not your focus and that could be frustrating.
However, the long-term benefits of betting on a single team outweigh this short-term benefits of drifting towards every other team.
One of the biggest mistakes bettors make is to put a large part of their bankroll into a single bet. Perhaps they think they won’t lose so much money, or when they eventually win, their winnings would be large.
However, if you want to become a successful bettor in the long term, you would need to put a limit on the amount you spend on every single game you bet on.
The major reason is that even the best bettors endure some run of loses at given points in time, so it makes no sense to bet $25 on a single game when your total bankroll is $100.
Professional bettors would only bet 2% or less of their total bankroll.
If you have a small bankroll say $200, you should look to bet about $5 or $10 per contest which is about 2.5% to 5% of their total outlay.
Why You Should Bet with Less than two Percent of your Bankroll
If you are betting 2% of $1,000 you are surer of greater wins in the long run than betting $200 per game.
With good betting skills and patience, you would more likely win more than you lose with this conservative strategy.
Also, you would suffer less anxiety when the game is not going your way if your bet is just 2% than when it is as much as 25% of your total outlay.
Why you may not bet with less than less than two percent
The major issue with betting 2% or less of your total bankroll is that most people have very small sum as their total bankroll. This makes it difficult to be conservative because there is usually a minimum you can place on a bet and a win with a small bet would usually amount to a small or insignificant winning.
Just like in life without a good strategy, it would hard to be successful and happy, it would also be very difficult to win as a professional bettor if you don’t have a strategy for winning.
Here are some of our smashed tips that won recently.
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Just like you can never win any sport you don’t understand or know how to play it if you do not have the understanding of the basic bet types, it becomes almost impossible to place the right bet.
In this article, we would be explaining three basic bet types; Handicap, Totals, and 1x-2. Continue reading to learn more about them.
Bet Types: Totals
Totals is a bet type that is also popular albeit as an alternative to Handicap Betting and 1x-2. Here the focus shifts from finding the winner of a particular game to predicting what the outcomes of a few game variables would be. These variables could be any easily quantifiable variable such as goals or points.
For this type of betting, bookmakers would offer the bettors the option of choosing whether the total goals would be OVER or UNDER their personal assessment of the game.
For example, in a situation that a Champions League game between Chelsea and Napoli is being considered, the total goal mark is placed at Over 2.5 (2.080) and Under 2.5 (1.909).
If a £10 bet is placed on the game to have over 2.5 goals, and the match ends at 2-1 (3 goals scored) the bettor would make a return £20.80, making £10.80 profit, but would have won nothing if he had bet that the total number of goals would be Under 2.5.
Bet Types: Handicap
Betting in handicap is the most valuable type of betting when one team is a heavy favorite in a game. Bookmakers offer handicap in order to level the playing field and counter the bias in the teams’ abilities.
The handicap is factored into the game’s final result to determine its final outcome for betting purposes.
For example, the handicap for a game between Chelsea and Napoli would be; (+0.5, 2.020) for Chelsea and (-0.5, 1.917) for Napoli.
If Napoli wins 1-0, betting than Napoli would win as the 0.5 handicap would not be enough to change the outcome.
If the result turns out to be stalemates say 1-1, betting on Chelsea to win as the 0.5 handicap and adding that to their result is good enough for the game to be turned in their favor.
However, the handicap is not only limited to the above scenario and can also appear in a different way for example as a split, like -0.5 & -1 or +0.5 & +1. In this case your stake is taken and placed in double handicap bets for you, and placing you in a position to win both, lose both or win one of the bets.
Bet Types: 1×2
1×2 betting is arguably the most popular betting form at the moment, and also the easiest way for a bettor to get to grips with the cost of betting. We would continue using our example of a Champions League game between Chelsea and Napoli to explain this also.
If you bet £10 that Chelsea would win at an odd or 4.250, a victory for Chelsea would net you a profit of £32.50. However, if the game ends in a draw or defeat for Chelsea, you would earn nothing.
If you bet the same £10 on a draw, you would earn a profit of £27.90, while placing the same bet that Napoli would win would net you £9.17 profit.
After understanding 1x-2 betting, the next step is to understand how its odds vary with different bookmakers.
Both teams to score is getting more popular as game outcomes continually end with both sides netting. As a matter of fact, in Europe’s top five leagues, 51% of matches over the past five seasons have ended in both teams scoring at least once. So if you have not started betting on both teams scoring, you might want to join now. Read further and you would see exactly why we think so and how this betting type works.
An In-depth analysis of BTTS (both teams to score) betting type shows that it is more than just flipping a coin. It could appear as a simply looking at the 50-50 stat from a couple of games, but it is more about putting together previous match statistics, the style of play, and when a game is taking place between two teams.
Analysis from a BTTS record
A BTTS record analyzed by Pinnacle Bet shows that there was a wide range of BTTS occurrences in 490 team seasons covered. They realized that 26% of Bayern Munich games in the 2014/2015 season ended in the BTTS, while Hoffenheim played BTTS in 79% of their games during the 2013/2014.
It was also discovered in the analysis that teams who were ever present in the Premier League over the past five seasons began to record BTTS in the same fixtures over a long period of time.
What to keep an eye on in Both Teams To Score Betting type
According to Spearman’s rank correlation which assesses both teams to score and other statistics for the last five seasons, goal difference may be in direct correlation with a team’s standings on the league table, but they are both not enough to decide whether both teams would score in a team’s game.
In the 2015/2016 season, the chances of Both Teams To Score in a game based on whether they both scored in a previous game was very minimal.
Also, one of both teams failed to score in 48.2% of Premier League games last season, and at least one of those two didn’t score in 51.1% of their next matches on average.
Is there a BTTS form for teams?
When both teams scored in a previous match played by a particular team, then that team was involved in a BTTS again in their next game 54.8% of the time. Compared that to the overall average score of 51.8% and you would see that having a knowledge of a team’s previous game can offer you a slight advantage, although not all teams would fit into this trend the same way.
That being said, every team in the Premier League had a time when both teams scored in at least three games, and when both teams also failed to score in the same number of games, this makes it easy to predict that they can have such a run at some point again.
For the five years period covered, Everton in the 2012/2013 season had the longest BTTS run with 16 games, and the longest run where both teams failed to score was Burnley’s in 12 games run in the 2014/2015 season.
Can Kick off time affect BTTS outcomes?
The time a match starts can also have an impact on whether both teams end up scoring or not.
Most games are usually played on Saturday just after lunchtime, however, as the above image shows, early kick-off games are usually dull for both the players and fans and as such it is harder for both teams to find the back of the net. Many have suggested that this is due to the away team’s travel arrangements or both teams having less time to prepare for the game.
Interestingly, from the analysis, both teams hit the back of the net in 55.7% of games started in the regular 3 pm kick off on Saturday, with only 48% of matches played at other times ending in BTTS.
Optimism Bias in BTTS
Optimism bias is ubiquitous in betting, but it is very important not to let that cloud your judgment in this betting type.
Usually, you would expect games between teams who struggle to score goals like West Brom, Stoke City and Burnley against the top six sides to not end in both teams scoring, but many times over a refereeing decision or even a defensive mistake would lead to the less likely team netting the first goal of the game, which would prompt the other team coming out to score as expected.
You can get the best tips about BTTS on Matchplug.com.
Despite the simple outlook of basketball, becoming an expert bettor and beating the bookmakers at the game takes a lot of effort and patience. In this article, we discuss some basic rules of the NBA and explain what to look out for if you want to make money betting on the NBA.
Basketball is one of the fastest-paced team sports in the world. Its style of play and high scoring outcomes makes it an exciting sport to watch for both fans and bettors alike.
The betting market for the NBA varies, from the most simple to the most complex, although the rules for playing the game is fairly straightforward.
Understanding the Rules of the Game
Despite the popularity of the NBA, basketball rules are universal whether it is in local leagues like the La Liga ACB, Greek basketball league, or international competitions like the FIBA World Cup.
The game involves two teams of 5 players each competing on a 28m x 15m court in the FIBA Championship or 28.7m x 15.2m in the NBA. Each team attempt to outscore the other by making the basket (offence) or blocking the other teams attempt to make the basket (defence).
Points are scored by putting the ball through a hoop that is 46 metres in diameter, and 3.05 metres off the ground. Points are in form of goals in soccer and are calculated as 3 points if scored from outside the 3-point line and 2 points if scored inside the 3-point line. Free throws are usually awarded after a rule violation and it is worth one point.
Games are usually either split in half or quarters and unlike soccer, no game can end in a draw, Overtime is used to determine the winner.
The NBA is split into Eastern and Western conference consisting of 30 teams altogether, with three divisions in each conference. Each team plays 82 games in a regular season, and the top eight teams with the best win-loss record in each conference go to the playoffs with the winner of the NBA playoffs final being crowned the NBA Champion.
How to Bet on the NBA
Handicap betting in the NBA is an advanced form of betting as teams are given a point handicap which would either be negative or positive to counter their difference in ability.
This simply means the favourite team gets a negative handicap while the least favourite gets a positive handicap.
Betting Totals in the NBA is simply betting if the total number of points scored by both sides would be over or under a certain figure set by the bookmaker.
Quarter and Half Betting
In addition to betting on the full-time outcome of games, bettors can bet on the outcome of a certain half in an NBA game. Money Line, Totals or Handicap can be applied here; the only difference is that the time period is reduced.
Unlike betting on individual games which leave room for error and relying too much on luck to determine the final outcome. The Outright market covers a longer period of time, which could be the whole 82 games season.
A few examples of outright betting in the NBA include the winner of the NBA Championship, Winner of the MVP, winner of the Eastern and Western conference etc.
Important things to consider when betting on the NBA
Experienced bettors know that betting is much more than finding an in-form team coming against a struggling side and betting that the in-form team would win. Just like in other sports, there are a few factors to consider when betting in the NBA.
Injuries and Squad rotation
Due to the intensity at which NBA games are played and the number of games in a regular season, injuries and rotation are inevitable.
To succeed as an NBA bettor, one has to keep an eye on team news to know if key players are injured or if they are being rested. If a big player is being rested ahead of a game, the odds of his team winning could change drastically, smart bettors that would bet according to this information would benefit greatly.
The number of games played by each team in the NBA means the impact of games played away from home is higher than in other sports. Formerly a team would have to play four games in five nights, but there has been a slight change although teams can still play four road games in a row.
If a home team plays another on the end of their four away games, fatigue could see the home team get the upper hand in the encounter, while a home team playing a team at the beginning of their away days could see the outcome change dramatically.
Use Statistics to improve your betting
Like in other sports, analyzing statistics is a sure way to improve your knowledge of the game you want to bet on and help you make informed decisions.