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Ever heard the phrase, “the house always wins?” It’s a reassurance that now matter what you play or how lucky you are, the game master always makes his profit; even when he is losing.
Truth is if you want to bet on sports and win big, you have to stop thinking about which odds to place or which games are the easiest and start thinking on how to beat the system so that you can one up bookmakers at every turn.
In this guide, we are going to share everything you need to know on how to win in Sports Betting.
These are hacks you will not find everywhere, that are purely about sports betting in general and will help you beat bookmakers at their own game repeatedly.
Why does this guide work?
To understand the guide, you first have to know why and how it works. To answer these questions, we have divulged 3 secrets below as a pre-game to the actual guide.
Here it goes… see if you can follow.
Providers direct attention toward form
Bookmakers make their money from and pay TV channels and affiliates from the prices they offer. But it doesn’t end there, it also applies to the events that you choose to bet on too.
So, these TV channels, bookies and affiliates, and social media will always send you to events where there is poor value and you are far less likely to win because of this low quality value.
Providers won’t send you to places where their sports books may have their incorrect pricings.
But this guide will show where you can find those weak pricings and also lay out the proposed five-step guide.
Winning in sports betting is not about picking a winner
Before you dive in, one thing you should get clear is that winning in sports betting is not about picking a winner.
It’s about getting the right price and then letting variance do the hard work for you.
For example, if there is a 50% chance of something happening and equivalent odds are:
The price of your bet is:
Difference per £1000 bet
Profit/Loss – £630
Any bets you strike as above the current price is your overall margin. So, the next bet might not come in or be the winner.
But, overall a wider sample of bets, means that you can come out on top and you can always win through taking value in the marketplace.
Find odds which are above their value
While this sounds like an easy thing to do, it is actually hard to find odds which are above their market value, because bookmakers and sportsbooks do the complete opposite, which is to offer you odds below their true value in their alternate directions.
When they do this, they effectively give you shorter odds than the probable chance of something happening.
Now that we have discussed these secrets, beating the system is where these 5 steps come in.
5 Step-guide you must see on always winning sports betting
Looking in the right place
Be in the line
Understanding the process
1. Looking in the right place
There is no stated time or place where you can deploy this first step, but we can tell you what to look for.
There are a lot of different providers on sports like greyhound racing, and this is because it is a fast-moving marketplace. There are often lots of changes that happen in this event and it’s less interesting for them and their traders and their trading rooms.
This lack of interest makes it possible for you to pick up on changes before the providers do and skin them for it.
For horse racing, you would want to look at the lower quality horse races, especially the ones that happen on all weather turfs.
In Football look at the far lower leagues, the less interesting events. Although, football can be tricky because there are less opportunities for this to happen.
While you can replicate this move on some other of your favorite sports, it is important to know that the Greyhounds racing market is good and profitable place to try this because there is a race happening every few minutes, especially during evenings or summer season, and providers are not focused on the events and the general public is not focused as well, plus it is a fast changing market.
The faster you dig in on all the juicy odds the higher your chances of securing a good odds and an even better payout before the markets change and other bettors are left scrambling for the meager leftovers.
2. Direct comparison
There are betting exchanges and sportsbook exchanges that happen very close to the starting time or at starting time itself.
There is also the wisdom of the crowds and thousands of people placing bets, making this time the closest you will get to the value of the true price of something.
If you can find a direct comparison where the sportsbook odds are bigger than the exchange odds, then it is in your favor.
The bigger the disparity the better, therefore the bigger the disparity between two, the larger you should stake.
3. Be in the line
For a greyhound event, the prices change rapidly, but you managed to back it at the price it previously was; a far bigger price despite the price crashing late on.
Find fast moving odds on an event bookies are not monitoring and bet on their value.
However, also look for significant volume on the selection close to or at the start of an event.
So, if you backed a sportsbook odds of 3.75 at the starting price of 3.0, and backed on another betting site at 7 and the odds go nearer to 5.5. You can see where there is a significant gamble or there is some money coming down on this selection that shortened the odds significantly, but you got far bigger than what was actually valued at the start.
When you see odds with these confirming signals – price difference, exchange volumes and close to the start, that is when you must strike.
As we said, the bigger the disparity of the odds, the bigger the gamble. The closer it is to the start, preferably on the start or even if it is slightly delayed after the start.
When you have ticked off these three things, that is when you can place your bets.
Over a long period of time, you will emerge as a consistent winner when you do this.
5. Understanding the process
Understanding the process, understanding the why of this strategy is important and then repeating this over a longer sample.
You must play the long game. You must allow variance to play out with that probability. Allow those losses to happen, allow the wins to happen and see the difference.
You can track this sequence ideally on a spreadsheet and in doing so, realize that it is part of the process.
Keep in mind that although you will remain a “winner” for any sports you bet on, over the long term there will be some losses that will occur.
But what you are doing is sensible, calculated, and you understand that making plans for short-term is not the way to win through sports betting.
Note, the hacks we showed you in this guide, might get you in trouble with several bookmakers, owing to the fact that you constantly win all the bets you placed with them.
However we will be showing you how you might want to maneuver the ban that is likely to be placed on your account after you follow this guide.
One way to avoid getting restrictions on your account (and this is entirely up to you) is that you might need to create different accounts with different bookmakers and different sportsbooks as well because you do not want to lose your accounts or the commissions coming in from them because you figured out how to beat the system. Providers do not want to keep paying out to you as they are there to make money from you, not lose to you.
Lastly, keep in mind that the biggest problem you might face following the strategies we gave is bankroll. This is because there is going to be a sequence of losing events at some point in time.
However, if you take value on those bets over a period of time that they are being bet on at their best point, when they are closest to their true odds or true value, then you will emerge a winner.
You would be surprised at how often these types of situations can happen in different sports events, whether cricket, tennis, basketball, or horse racing.
So, you want to start wagering on football and would like a beginners guide to football betting?
If you answered this question as “yes”, you are in the right place.
Football is one of the most popular sports people bet on passionately in the world, and truth be told if you really want to win in it or get the same rewards these avid players get, then it is important that you understand things like the key features of football markets and their inner workings as well.
Whether you are betting as a hobby or in it professionally, this beginners’ guide gives you knowledge on how football betting works, odds, types of bets you are likely to come across and tips too that’ll make the process easier for you.
Let’s dive in…
What Is Football Betting?
Football betting is the act of predicting football match results and placing a wager (bet) on their outcomes.
In football betting there are several markets offered by bookmakers in competitions and league matches as well. Each market is different and pays differently depending on the rules of prediction governing them and how accurately you make those predictions.
How Does Football Betting Work?
During football season several matches can happen in a week making available markets to bet on which are offered by bookmakers (betting sites) in the form of huge varieties of different odds on every single detail of a match.
These bookmakers give their prices on the outcome of matches and events that happen during a match like number of goals scored, corners won, red or yellow cards issued to a player, and individual goal scorers.
Similarly, many different bookmakers continuously give customers special offers and competitive odds to ensure that you get the best value bet.
Once the outcome of your betting prediction is confirmed and your bet emerges a winner, you will be paid your original stake price plus the winning from the odds.
What are odds in football betting?
In betting, odds are what represent the probability of an event occuring (like a match ending in a draw or 4 goals to one). The price shown for an odd means the percentage chance of an event happening or not.
Odds also represent the ratio between amounts staked by parties to a wager or bet. So, if there is an odds of 3 to 1 it simply means the first party (the bookmaker) staked three times the amount wagered by the second party (the bettor).
If you are starting football betting or any other type of betting, you need to understand, read and be able to interpret various odds formats because it helps you intelligently place bets.
Types of odds
There are three main types of odds – Moneyline (American), British odds (fractional), and European odds (decimal).
We have briefly explained all 3 types below.
1. Fractional Odds
Fractional odds, UK or traditional odds are mostly used by British and Irish bookmakers and are written with a slash (/) or hyphen (-). The world’s largest bookmakers use this odds.
In fractional odds you receive a stipulated amount plus the wager you placed, as a total payout. So if the odds are 6/1, you will get $6 for $1 you placed. And will also get your stake back in addition to the profit of $6 that’s $7.
2. European Odds
European Odds or Decimal odds are popular in places like Europe, Australia, New Zealand, and Canada. These odds are easier to understand and calculate and it involves supporting favorites or underdogs.
Decimal odds numbers represent the amount you win for every $1 you wager and the total payout you get rather than the profit. Your stake is already included in the decimal number, so there is no need to add back your stake.
If you bet $100 on a decimal listing of 4.00 you get a total payout of $400 that is ($100 x 4.00) – your initial stake of $100 and a net profit of $300.
3. Moneyline Odds
Moneyline Odds aka American or US Odds are popularly used in the United States.
In moneyline, odds backing favorites are accompanied by a minus sign (-) and show the amount you need to stake to win $100 – e.g stake $300 to win payout of $100.
While odds for underdogs have a plus sign (+) and show the amount you win for every $100 you stake. E.g stake $100 to win $300.
Whether you back the favorites or underdogs, you get your initial wager price back plus the amount won.
Types of Football Bets
There are different types of football bets or markets. In some, like Accumulator Bets, you can combine different selections into one large odds price to place your bet.
1. Double Chance
Double Chance bets lets you bet on three outcomes of a match:
Home team or draw
Away team or draw
Home team or away team win
If any of your outcomes happen, you win.
2. Accumulator Bets
Accumulator Bets combine multiple selections into one bet and have the potential to offer you big rewards because your winnings from each match selections are put on the next one.
You can pick up to four teams and if they all win, you receive your payout.
In Overs and Unders you bet on the amount of goals to be scored, over or under an amount.
If you bet over 2.5 it means 3 or more goals, while under 2.5 means 0, 1, or 2 goals to be scored.
4. Draw No Bet
In Draw No Bet you bet on the outcome of a match, but if it ends in a draw, you get your money back.
DNB is a safe bet, but has lower odds than other markets.
In In-Play betting, you can place your bets for an outcome while a match is currently ongoing. As you watch the match live, you can bet on which team will score next.
6. Match Bet
Match Bets means you can wager on three different outcomes that will occur within the 90 minutes of a match. This could be draws, home team or away team win. If within 90 minutes any of these things happen, you get paid. But if it happens at extra time or penalty, it doesn’t count.
7. Handicap Betting
Handicap Betting (point or line betting) is used by bookmakers to level the playing field when a weaker and stronger team is matched for a game, by giving an advantage to the weak team and disadvantage to the strong team.
There are two types of handicap bet – Asian and European.
In Half-time / Full-time you bet on the outcome of a match for the first half or second half. This can be a home team or away team win or draw.
Scorecast is when you select a player to score the first goal of a match and predict the correct score. The odds for this bet are higher because it involves two outcomes.
Wincast is similar to Scorecast, but involves predicting a goalscorer and the outcome of the match rather than correct score.
Football Betting Tips To Note
One way to learn football betting is by following our guide to understand the basics. The 5 other ways to learn, we have shared them below:
1. Bet With a Trusted Betting Site
As a beginner, there are many sites that would just love to take your money, but it’s important that you be thorough when choosing a betting site.
A betting site can make or mar you as a bettor, and you don’t want to use one where you end up losing your money or your private data.
2. Bet With Your Head
Passion fuels football betting, but that doesn’t mean that you should do it with your heart.
What we mean is, don’t back the team you want to win, you don’t control the outcomes, instead bet on the one you think will win. Similarly, don’t bet against teams you don’t like because you think they are going to lose.
3. Start Slow
As a beginner bettor, test the waters before you go all in.
Don’t bet on every match you see or accept every odd a bookmaker suggests to you without having enough knowledge or experience about how they work.
4. Know Team Motivation
Your bet is only as good as the team you back, so try to understand what motivates them.
Teams that have done badly and risk relegation, fight harder to stay in the league than the team that has already won the league and is now cruising through their matches.
5. Avoid Friendlies
Teams don’t put much effort in friendlies and they may use their reserve players.
Also, if friendlies are at the beginning of a new season which they usually are, players will be too careful not to get injuries and may not play as hard as they do.
Spain and Portugal will go head to head in this UEFA Nations League match with each country hoping they will finally beat the other.
This Iberian derby has ended in draws the last four times both countries have met and only one of those matches had at least a goal in it.
These two nations are heavyweights in European football and they remain keen to make an impression in the next World Cup.
Winning the Nations League will probably be much easier to achieve for either side and they will want to make a positive start to their campaigns.
Cristiano Ronaldo leads a much more experienced Portugal side that has some of the finest players in the world, but Spain is evolving under Luis Enrique and they have a good blend of talent and experience as well.
The Spaniards have won all their last four international matches before this one and kept a clean sheet in three of those victories.
Portugal beat Turkey and North Macedonia to clinch a World Cup ticket, but they couldn’t win any of their previous two games and lost at home to Serbia.