betting psychology Archives

Popular Soccer Betting Tips

Betting on football is very popular around the world, but it can be extremely frustrating if you don’t know how to bet and win. While there’s no shortage of stories about punters who won thousands after staking $50 or less, all that most punters know is the drowning feeling of losing an accumulator to a last minute goal. Some continue to wager week after the other hoping for a big payday, only for the whole exercise to end up being costly.

Here are some of the most popular soccer betting tips that will help you win:

Do Your Research

The first rule in soccer betting is that every punter must gather enough information before placing a bet on any outcome. Study a team’s form, statistics, head to head comparison, and the team news to be able to make an informed decision when it comes to betting. That’s because this information will allow you to take an analytical approach when determining which outcome might occur.

For instance, if the top team on the league table is playing a club in the relegation zone during the middle of the week, the leading team will be priced as the favorite. However, there are still several other factors that may affect the outcome of such a game.

Though most people will take the positions in the league as a good indicator for a win, the bottom team might give their best for the game. There are also chances that the top team will rest their key players while playing lesser opponents to keep them fit for bigger challenges.

Remain Analytical

Though you will get great market odd when you bet on football with Betway Kenya, always avoid betting on impulse. Avoid letting your emotions run wild when betting and place your bets solely based on the research. Depending on the odds to know the possible outcome is a sure way to lose your money.

Backing with your heart also makes you bet on your team or your favorite player to score, ignoring the form of the player or the opposition’s strength. Some punters get lucky often and win when they back big teams, but those who support teams in the relegation zone lose more than they win every season. That means you should remain analytical and only bet on matches that you’ve gathered enough info.

Keep A Record Of Your Lines

Though some bookies like Betway keep a record of all your bets, it’s important to have a separate record on a note pad. Keep a clear note of your losses and wins, as well as your stake on each combination to know exactly how much money you’re giving away. You can also add notes to help you move forward and improve your betting strategy.

At the end of the week or a month, you should tally your results and look at your overall profit or loss. If you’re experiencing constant losses with accumulators that promise big returns, consider changing your betting tactics next time. You might also consider backing a few teams in a single accumulator or placing singles bets, even though the returns are not as huge.

Remember You Won’t Always Win

If there’s a bullet proof way to win every time you bet on football, then the bookies would be out of business. However, you can use the three tips above to increase the number of times you win your bets every season.

A complete guide to the basic bet types

Just like you can never win any sport you don’t understand or know how to play it if you do not have the understanding of the basic bet types, it becomes almost impossible to place the right bet.

In this article, we would be explaining three basic bet types; Handicap, Totals, and 1x-2. Continue reading to learn more about them.

Bet Types: Totals

Totals is a bet type that is also popular albeit as an alternative to Handicap Betting and 1x-2. Here the focus shifts from finding the winner of a particular game to predicting what the outcomes of a few game variables would be. These variables could be any easily quantifiable variable such as goals or points.

For this type of betting, bookmakers would offer the bettors the option of choosing whether the total goals would be OVER or UNDER their personal assessment of the game.

For example, in a situation that a Champions League game between Chelsea and Napoli is being considered, the total goal mark is placed at Over 2.5 (2.080) and Under 2.5 (1.909).

If a £10 bet is placed on the game to have over 2.5 goals, and the match ends at 2-1 (3 goals scored) the bettor would make a return £20.80, making £10.80 profit, but would have won nothing if he had bet that the total number of goals would be Under 2.5.

Bet Types: Handicap

Betting in handicap is the most valuable type of betting when one team is a heavy favorite in a game. Bookmakers offer handicap in order to level the playing field and counter the bias in the teams’ abilities.

The handicap is factored into the game’s final result to determine its final outcome for betting purposes.

For example, the handicap for a game between Chelsea and Napoli would be; (+0.5, 2.020) for Chelsea and (-0.5, 1.917) for Napoli.

If Napoli wins 1-0, betting than Napoli would win as the 0.5 handicap would not be enough to change the outcome.

If the result turns out to be stalemates say 1-1, betting on Chelsea to win as the 0.5 handicap and adding that to their result is good enough for the game to be turned in their favor.

However, the handicap is not only limited to the above scenario and can also appear in a different way for example as a split, like -0.5 & -1 or +0.5 & +1. In this case your stake is taken and placed in double handicap bets for you, and placing you in a position to win both, lose both or win one of the bets.

Bet Types: 1×2

1×2 betting is arguably the most popular betting form at the moment, and also the easiest way for a bettor to get to grips with the cost of betting. We would continue using our example of a Champions League game between Chelsea and Napoli to explain this also.

If you bet £10 that Chelsea would win at an odd or 4.250, a victory for Chelsea would net you a profit of £32.50. However, if the game ends in a draw or defeat for Chelsea, you would earn nothing.

If you bet the same £10 on a draw, you would earn a profit of £27.90, while placing the same bet that Napoli would win would net you £9.17 profit.

After understanding 1x-2 betting, the next step is to understand how its odds vary with different bookmakers.

Analysing both teams to score in betting

Both teams to score is getting more popular as game outcomes continually end with both sides netting. As a matter of fact, in Europe’s top five leagues, 51% of matches over the past five seasons have ended in both teams scoring at least once. So if you have not started betting on both teams scoring, you might want to join now. Read further and you would see exactly why we think so and how this betting type works.

An In-depth analysis of BTTS (both teams to score) betting type shows that it is more than just flipping a coin. It could appear as a simply looking at the 50-50 stat from a couple of games, but it is more about putting together previous match statistics, the style of play, and when a game is taking place between two teams.

Analysis from a BTTS record

A BTTS record analyzed by Pinnacle Bet shows that there was a wide range of BTTS occurrences in 490 team seasons covered. They realized that 26% of Bayern Munich games in the 2014/2015 season ended in the BTTS, while Hoffenheim played BTTS in 79% of their games during the 2013/2014.

It was also discovered in the analysis that teams who were ever present in the Premier League over the past five seasons began to record BTTS in the same fixtures over a long period of time.

What to keep an eye on in Both Teams To Score Betting type

According to Spearman’s rank correlation which assesses both teams to score and other statistics for the last five seasons, goal difference may be in direct correlation with a team’s standings on the league table, but they are both not enough to decide whether both teams would score in a team’s game.

In the 2015/2016 season, the chances of Both Teams To Score in a game based on whether they both scored in a previous game was very minimal.

Also, one of both teams failed to score in 48.2% of Premier League games last season, and at least one of those two didn’t score in 51.1% of their next matches on average.

Is there a BTTS form for teams?

When both teams scored in a previous match played by a particular team, then that team was involved in a BTTS again in their next game 54.8% of the time. Compared that to the overall average score of 51.8% and you would see that having a knowledge of a team’s previous game can offer you a slight advantage, although not all teams would fit into this trend the same way.

That being said, every team in the Premier League had a time when both teams scored in at least three games, and when both teams also failed to score in the same number of games, this makes it easy to predict that they can have such a run at some point again.

For the five years period covered, Everton in the 2012/2013 season had the longest BTTS run with 16 games, and the longest run where both teams failed to score was Burnley’s in 12 games run in the 2014/2015 season.

Can Kick off time affect BTTS outcomes?

The time a match starts can also have an impact on whether both teams end up scoring or not.

Most games are usually played on Saturday just after lunchtime, however, as the above image shows, early kick-off games are usually dull for both the players and fans and as such it is harder for both teams to find the back of the net. Many have suggested that this is due to the away team’s travel arrangements or both teams having less time to prepare for the game.

Interestingly, from the analysis, both teams hit the back of the net in 55.7% of games started in the regular 3 pm kick off on Saturday, with only 48% of matches played at other times ending in BTTS.

Optimism Bias in BTTS

Optimism bias is ubiquitous in betting, but it is very important not to let that cloud your judgment in this betting type.

Usually, you would expect games between teams who struggle to score goals like West Brom, Stoke City and Burnley against the top six sides to not end in both teams scoring, but many times over a refereeing decision or even a defensive mistake would lead to the less likely team netting the first goal of the game, which would prompt the other team coming out to score as expected.

You can get the best tips about BTTS on Matchplug.com.

The Ultimate guide to betting on the NBA

Despite the simple outlook of basketball, becoming an expert bettor and beating the bookmakers at the game takes a lot of effort and patience. In this article, we discuss some basic rules of the NBA and explain what to look out for if you want to make money betting on the NBA.

Basketball is one of the fastest-paced team sports in the world. Its style of play and high scoring outcomes makes it an exciting sport to watch for both fans and bettors alike.

The betting market for the NBA varies, from the most simple to the most complex, although the rules for playing the game is fairly straightforward.

Understanding the Rules of the Game

Despite the popularity of the NBA, basketball rules are universal whether it is in local leagues like the La Liga ACB, Greek basketball league, or international competitions like the FIBA World Cup.

The game involves two teams of 5 players each competing on a 28m x 15m court in the FIBA Championship or 28.7m x 15.2m in the NBA. Each team attempt to outscore the other by making the basket (offence) or blocking the other teams attempt to make the basket (defence).

Points are scored by putting the ball through a hoop that is 46 metres in diameter, and 3.05 metres off the ground. Points are in form of goals in soccer and are calculated as 3 points if scored from outside the 3-point line and 2 points if scored inside the 3-point line. Free throws are usually awarded after a rule violation and it is worth one point.

Games are usually either split in half or quarters and unlike soccer, no game can end in a draw, Overtime is used to determine the winner.

The NBA is split into Eastern and Western conference consisting of 30 teams altogether, with three divisions in each conference. Each team plays 82 games in a regular season, and the top eight teams with the best win-loss record in each conference go to the playoffs with the winner of the NBA playoffs final being crowned the NBA Champion.

How to Bet on the NBA

Handicap

Handicap betting in the NBA is an advanced form of betting as teams are given a point handicap which would either be negative or positive to counter their difference in ability.

This simply means the favourite team gets a negative handicap while the least favourite gets a positive handicap.

Totals

Betting Totals in the NBA is simply betting if the total number of points scored by both sides would be over or under a certain figure set by the bookmaker.

Quarter and Half Betting

In addition to betting on the full-time outcome of games, bettors can bet on the outcome of a certain half in an NBA game. Money Line, Totals or Handicap can be applied here; the only difference is that the time period is reduced.

Outright Markets

Unlike betting on individual games which leave room for error and relying too much on luck to determine the final outcome. The Outright market covers a longer period of time, which could be the whole 82 games season.

A few examples of outright betting in the NBA include the winner of the NBA Championship, Winner of the MVP, winner of the Eastern and Western conference etc.

Important things to consider when betting on the NBA

Experienced bettors know that betting is much more than finding an in-form team coming against a struggling side and betting that the in-form team would win. Just like in other sports, there are a few factors to consider when betting in the NBA.

Injuries and Squad rotation

Due to the intensity at which NBA games are played and the number of games in a regular season, injuries and rotation are inevitable.

To succeed as an NBA bettor, one has to keep an eye on team news to know if key players are injured or if they are being rested. If a big player is being rested ahead of a game, the odds of his team winning could change drastically, smart bettors that would bet according to this information would benefit greatly.

Team Schedule

The number of games played by each team in the NBA means the impact of games played away from home is higher than in other sports. Formerly a team would have to play four games in five nights, but there has been a slight change although teams can still play four road games in a row.

If a home team plays another on the end of their four away games, fatigue could see the home team get the upper hand in the encounter, while a home team playing a team at the beginning of their away days could see the outcome change dramatically.

Use Statistics to improve your betting

Like in other sports, analyzing statistics is a sure way to improve your knowledge of the game you want to bet on and help you make informed decisions.

Understanding what it takes to become a professional in betting

Although many individuals bet just for the fun of doing so and some others bet for entertainment purposes, there a few people who are serious about betting and would like to make a fortune from their betting career. In this article we share what you need to know about becoming a professional in betting.

Anyone who wants to make it as a bettor professionally knows that it requires a lot of patience and dedication to the goal. Beating the bookmakers as a career would require more than getting enough funds to invest and building a knowledge base for a sport you want to bet in.

You might have the information that is unknown to others, have a refined staking method that you feel has been tested and proven, yet still not be a professional bettor yet, read further to see what it takes to be a successful betting professional.

Your staking method is very important

Betting for a living does not mean you would make money at all times. Even the most successful and “skilful” bettors still place losing bets at some points. What you can do is to use a staking method that would see your money being used in the most efficient way.

Without the right staking method, you could create the best model and maybe start getting good results even, but with time you would lose your edge.

Understanding the value of information

Bookmakers usually buy information before setting their odds, and make adjustments accordingly also when information changes. Betting professionals may predict the outcome of games based on their skills, but they also make use of information that is at their disposal which no one else may have. Information like key players missing, weather condition, or previous records at a certain stadium could affect the outcome of games. Professional bettors use a combination of their skills and these information to place their bets.

Betting is not just about knowing how to predict

Although having an edge and the right staking method may maximise your profitability as a bettor, you would need to be able to predict the outcome of a sport event and determine if it has a potential positive value, before your staking method would be of any good to you.

The biggest mistake amateur bettors make is trying to bet on any and everything because they think it is all about being able to predict. Rather than betting on every sport, you would do better if you focus on one game. Most times niche markets like under/over market in soccer, and the NBA betting is very profitable despite bookmakers thinking they have a foothold on the market.

Choosing the sport to bet on

As we have stated before, becoming a betting professional requires finding an edge over the bookmakers in any sport you decide to bet on. But the truth is some sport would be easier than the others for any individual who hopes to forge a career in betting. With the information on Matchplug blog like understanding how Handicap betting works in different sports, you would be able to decide the best type or sports to bet on.

Measuring success in betting

The best way to know if you’ve been successful in betting is to compare your betting endeavour with the closing line – the closest odds to your calculation before an event. When you continually test the outcome of your strategy against the closing line of your bookmakers, you’d eventually eliminate the place of luck. Analysing your own results over time, cannot be overlooked if you want to be a professional bettor.

Betting with the right bookmaker

It may be hard to become an expert in a particular market, using the right staking method, and developing a good betting strategy, however it is also just as difficult to find the right bookmaker for you.

To become a successful bettor who makes enough money to bet full time, you need to consistently use a bookmaker who offers the highest odds. You would also have to be betting as much as you want, so using a bookmaker that gives the highest limit is also important as you would not want to be limited in any way. You would also do well to bet with a bookmaker that has no restriction on those who make too much money betting.

Some other rules that you should abide by after the above include: Don’t let your emotions get in the way of your betting, don’t fall for randomness, and don’t ever bet with any cash that you would not want to lose.

Why Patience is key to success in betting

People typically feel all that it takes to be a successful bettor is to stake more money in more games so that you can increase your chances of winning.

While that may be true in some cases, it is far from the whole truth. To become successful, bettors need to work hard, stay disciplined, and learn as fast as possible.

Patience is also required, even though it is an underrated part of betting. This article explains why it is important for bettors to be patient.

Why patience is a virtue for bettors

Patience which is the capacity to tolerate delays is one of the most overlooked parts of becoming successful in betting.

However, in an activity like betting that is prone to random outcomes and luck, being patient can only be overlooked to the detriment of a bettor.

The Law of Large Numbers is the best way to explain how vital patience is to betting, because of its principle of the probability distribution.

In betting, this is merely the probability that a coin would land on its head or tail. At some point in time with continual tossing, the coin toss would even out.

It is the same situation with betting because at some point the random nature of betting and luck would even out if the bettor has a more significant edge than the margin of the bookmaker.

The key now is to be patient enough not to restrict the sample size.

The role of cognitive bias

Even if bettors are well versed in the common traps other unsuccessful bettors fall into, and know that they can make money if they wait long enough, cognitive bias can still interfere with their reasoning and ruin their chances of winning.

However, with patience, bettors can refrain from making rational and impulsive betting decisions, and make more calculated and informed betting decisions.

Long-term success vs. Short term gain

Hyperbolic discounting is one of the significant cognitive biases that patience can help bettors control. This cognitive bias is the tendency of a bettor to choose quick payoff over a bigger gain that could take a more extended period to achieve.

The best expression of this notion is looking at a bettor’s staking method.

Most bettors would usually favor betting with all their money at once to get a huge instant win, even if there are obvious risks to them losing all their bankroll.

These bettors would use staking methods that would see them continually lose money betting, with the hopes of recouping all their previous stakes.

However, the patient bettor would use any of the fixed or proportional staking methods that reduce risk, and could even eliminate it entirely, despite having to wait for long to win.

Technology and its impact on our patience

Technology has many good sides, but its ability to make us acquire our needs and goods quickly may not be all positive.

With the touch of a button, we can now order a pizza or a taxi, we no longer have to leave our houses to shop, and so we can spend more time in our comfort zone while still getting things done.

These advancements in technology have created a desire for instant gratification that has also found its way into the world of betting.

Bettors are now provided with endless ways of placing a bet without breaking a sweat, and more importantly, for bookmakers, they can now take advantage of the minimal thoughts most bettors put into their betting decisions and offer curated bets in the form of “best bets,” and “most popular bets” etc.

Wait for what you know

In conclusion, bettors who want to be successful cannot afford not to be patient and see the bigger picture.

If you bet with a positive expected value, but find out you are suffering some losses, just know that this is just a progression of losses in a larger sample that would ultimately be profitable.

Betting is all about detecting favourable expected values, having an understanding of margins, and having an edge over your bookmaker so that you can tell how much your bet is costing you.

But you have to combine your winning strategy with patience if you want to get your desired result.

Unlike the lottery, in betting, you don’t become rich overnight.

Tag: betting psychology