Here are our winning tips for 23rd February.
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Here are our winning tips for 23rd February.
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The arrival of Alexis Sanchez has seen the career of Marcus Rashford stall and the English man is now set to leave Old Trafford.
Rashford has struggled for game time since the January arrival of Sanchez as Jose Mourinho prefers to play either the Chilean or Anthony Martial on the left of his attack.
Rashford and his teammates are preparing to face Chelsea in their next league game on Sunday but he is expected to start from the bench again. Several pundits have adviced him to leave Old Trafford so he can further his development.
It appears as though a move away is only a matter of time before it could happen.
Real Madrid have also been interested in the past as they plan a major summer raid on the Premier League.
However, bookmakers, Ladbrokes have installed Chelsea as favourites to land the English man.
They have made the Blues just 2/1 favourites to sign Rashford, while Real Madrid are following closely at 5/2. Tottenham are 4/1, while Barcelona are outsiders at 5/1.
Whether he leaves or remains with the Red Devils, he is expected to be in the England Squad for next summer’s world cup in Russia.
There appears to be no end in sight for the troubled career of Manchester United midfielder Paul Pogba.
The French man has come under intense scrutiny for his abject displays this season and he is said to have fallen out of favour with Jose Mourinho.
He has not started a game for the Red Devils since he was hauled off in their 1-0 loss to Newcastle.
He came on for the injured Ander Herrera in their last match against Sevilla, but he was outshined by youngster McTominay who had originally replaced him in the starting line up.
Reports have been rife in the English media that he could be set for a move away with Real Madrid prepared to pay £120 million for his signature.
Reports from Sun Sport via L’Equipe is claiming that there is a clause in the French man’s that could see him re-join Juventus for £52 million, almost half the price he joined them in 2016.
Pogba’s agent has also been calling the top club’s from around Europe to ask them to make a move for his client.
What serious bettors want the most is to gain an advantage over whoever is laying their bet whether they are bookmakers or casino. This is called having an edge over them, and if you are serious about becoming a successful bettor, you need to understand what it really means.
What’s the margin between success and failure in betting?
One of the most popular clichés in journalism is – the margin between success and failure slim. However, the margin between making a profit and losing all your bankroll in betting is dependent on the bookmaker you choose to bet with.
Many bettors are oblivious to the impact of margins, however, this does not stop it from being fundamental to making money in betting. At Matchplug we pick the games with the most appropriate margins, therefore, offering bettors a greater chance of winning.
Knowledge gives you power
The first step to identifying the advantage a bookmaker holds over you is to understand margins. The next thing you can do after understanding margin is to find ways to prevent them from using their edge over you. The single most powerful way to get an advantage over a bookmaker is to find and bet on markets where you have more information about than they do.
The simple truth is that, although bookmakers are experienced and they have tools that can help them, they have their weaknesses too. A perfect example is the minor leagues. Most bookmakers offer minor leagues just to differentiate themselves from competitors not because they are experts in those leagues.
They may find it hard to understand the dynamics of the third division of the Russian Volleyball league, yet they still offer bets in those areas where they are weak, but you can be very knowledgeable yourself in those areas and that gives you an advantage over the bookmakers.
You need to keep your ear on the ground
Knowledge as many see it is only potential power, and it alone cannot guarantee success. If whatever information you get is already common, it would have already impacted the odds. The real value, therefore, comes from information from the horse’s mouth.
Twitter has taken centre stage in terms of how fast information are disseminated, but it has also helped to reduce the time it takes for an information to become common as well as increased the amount of false information being shared.
Betting different from popular opinion
If given the chance would you rather bet on an event that is unknown instead of one whose information is available? The latter is obviously the best option. Getting an edge over the bookmakers definitely requires having an insight into the envelope before the award’s winner is announced.
Information is always getting leaked either sometimes verbally, or in other ways. The results may not be entirely known, but motivation makes it very predictable. Take a look at reality TV shows, for example, every participant is talented in their own way, but the talent is not the only thing being considered. Controversies surrounding a particular participant would play a key role in whether they stay long in the show or not, you should research other things about the shows like program ratings also if you are betting on it.
Understanding Cross-Correlation
Cross-correlation and dependencies are very important in betting and understanding them gives you a huge edge. If you can focus on anticipating bad weather and correlate them with certain results in a particular sport, you may establish yourself as an expert in winning bets based on whether bad weather causes low scoring outcomes or not.
Sign Up for Matchplug now and get the tips which are guaranteed to have an edge over the bookmakers.
Here are our winning tips for 22nd February.
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Real Madrid have demanded that Chelsea number 1, Thibaut Courtois delays signing the new deal that the Blues have offered him until at least April.
Los Blancos are looking for a new number one after they decided it was time to ditch Keylor Navas. They have also decided that the best place to sign a new goalie would be from the Premier League and they have narrowed their list of targets down to David de Gea and Thibaut Courtois.
However, Sun Sport is reporting that they want to keep their options open at the moment and so they have asked Courtois not to sign a new Chelsea deal yet.
The Blues have offered Courtois a new contract since last year, but the Belgian has told them to allow this season to finish first before he can start negotiating with them.
Madrid know that Courtois has a desire to return to the Spanish capital and with just over a year left on his current deal, this is the best time for them to try and sign him.
The Belgian has also admitted that he would love to return to Madrid where he had previously played for Atletico as his wife and children stay there.
Manchester City have been dealt a major blow in their quest to sign Harry Maguire next summer.
The 24 years old English man has caught the eyes of Pep Guardiola with his displays this season and the Catalan boss was plotting a summer move.
However, the former Hull City man seems not to be in a hurry to leave the King Power Stadium and he is reportedly keen on extending his current deal with the former Premier League champions.
He signed from the Tigers last summer and has played every minute of every game for the Foxes this season. One of the high points of his career so far was scoring an injury-time equalizer against Manchester United.
Pep Guardiola loves a centre-back who is confident on the ball and can play it out of the defence without fear, Maguire has shown he can do that and can also be very calm under pressure.
He is reportedly worth £50 million, however, with a new deal coming his way soon just 7 months after he joined them, his value could skyrocket especially if he makes it into England’s squad for the World Cup in Russia.
Super agent Mino Raiola is at it again and this time instead of bringing another star man to Manchester United and the Premier League, the Italian is looking to take one star away.
Reports from Sun Sport this morning is claiming that the Italian’s client, Paul Pogba is already regretting coming back to Manchester United as his form has continued to dip this season.
He has been left out of the last four starting eleven by Jose Mourinho and struggled to make any meaningful impact when he replaced Ander Herrera in Manchester United’s match last night.
He appears to have fallen out of favour with Mourinho and Raiola who wants him to be happy has already started to call top European sides over a potential transfer next summer.
PSG and Real Madrid are his biggest admirers with the Spaniards reportedly readying a £120 million bid for the French man next summer.
Pogba wants to remain but he does not like the position that Mourinho plays him. The Portuguese boss is determined to show Pogba that he is the manager and with his contract expiring in 2020, Pogba knows he may need to leave to get his wish to play further forward.
Here are our winning tips for 21st February 2018.
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Before opening the market for a particular game, bookmakers calculate the opening odds based on the analysis of statistics from the team’s previous performances, factoring key information like injuries and suspension of key players.
As soon as the odds become available, bettors place bets on the markets they believe offers them the best value. This causes the bookmakers to continually adjust their odds so they can balance their own books.
Odds that are offered just before a match begins are called the closing line because they reflect all statistics, news, sentiments among others. The closing line is usually the most underlying probability.
What the heck is the positive expected value?
If you want to bet and win in the long term without relying on luck, you would need to be able to identify bets that has positive expected value, in other words: bets with a much bigger chance of winning than what the odds imply.
Theoretically, the long run average value of an experiment is the average expected value of that event. As an example, let’s take a coin toss. If the probability of both the head and the tail is exactly at 50%, this is how a positive expected value would look like:
Odds
Heads: 2.10
Tails: 1.80
For every $10 bet on heads, the expected profit is $0.50.
From the above, the expected value is a positive number this means that betting on this market would be profitable in the long run even though there is also the risk of losing in a single coin toss. So when you bet on a market like this, you are not looking to win every bet but you are trying to make decisions with positive expected values.
Efficient Market Theory
Because of the constant fluctuations of odds from the time they are made available and when they close just before the game begins, there is always the question of which is the most accurate odd? This shows that the probabilities in sports betting are not as straightforward as that of the coin toss example above.
The efficient market theory believes that the closing odds are averagely the most accurate in predicting the final outcome of a fixture. It believes that since the fluctuation of odds reflects all the publicly available information there is no long term bias in the betting outcomes.
For example, when bettors notice that the underdogs in a game have been given a generous odd, they would try to take advantage of that and bet on that market quickly, with more people betting on that market, the odds would continue to shrink until there is no more perceived inefficiency.
Since the opening odd does not reflect the true state of things with regards to information in the market, the closing odd remains the most unbiased representation of the probability of a game’s outcome.
Why beating the odds is important
Most bettors are concerned about whether they genuinely have the edge over the bookmakers or if they are just in luck. With a deliberate effort to track your ability to beat the odds, you can reliably differentiate between luck and strategy.
The fact that your bet beats the closing line does not guarantee that it would be profitable, however, consistently beating the closing line of all the bookmakers you bet with means that you are a successful bettor.
Sign up on Matchplug now and we guarantee that you would consistently beat the bookmakers with our correct score predictions.
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