When it comes to betting strategy, there is only one thing that really works. And the reason why
this thing works is due to factors like mathematics, facts, and probability.
This reason is the same one why major betting websites like Bet365, has turned in since 2019,
high profit of over 2.9 billion in annual revenue.
These betting websites, will never divulge their secrets, instead they will have you looking in the
all the wrong directions – it doesn’t matter if you pick a winner 8 times out of 10, spot a horse
with a good turn effort or even find a team with new up-and-coming players. All of these things
are what the traditional media wants you to focus on, and it is completely wrong.
And this is what we will prove to you in this article on developing a betting strategy that works.
You see betting strategy when you know how to use it, is incredibly simple, especially when you
factor in all the tools and technologies that is now available to bettors online.
So, in this article on Betting Strategy that works | Make an income betting on sports, we will
explain what makes a successful betting strategy and how you can find value for yourself.
Betting Strategy: How It Works
Here, we have discussed how betting strategy works and key factors that influence it.
- Probability
At the core of every betting strategy is probability or an implied chance as it is sometimes
referred to. Knowing the implied chance is the most accurate way to gauge if betting odds have
value or not. And to be successful in betting, you need value to win.
You see, it doesn’t matter if you choose the right horse four times out of five in a race, if you
weren’t getting value the short-term results would be random distributions, but over the long term
you’ll lose.
It is a fact the true payout is inline with probability. And this is how bookmakers make more
profit, using simple mathematics. They take the probability of something happening, convert the
price into betting odds and then offer you a lower one.
So, to have a successful betting strategy you must do the complete opposite as it is the only thing
that works. This leads us to the next point in this article.
- Identifying Value
As a bettor, how do you identify value for your betting strategy? The first thing you need to
know is the implied chance of an outcome or true odds, as it is sometimes referred to.
But, this could be a problem, as it is a complicated task, so we’ll suggest a quicker and easier
way for you to do this.
Just look at the betting exchanges close to the start, it’s the closet indicator to true odds you’ll
find, especially when you learn to consider trading volumes.
The reason why this works is simple, the wisdom of the crowds; a well-documented
phenomenon based on the law of averages. Being close to the event start is also important, as it
provides the most efficient results with a larger data sample.
Although, that is only the first part as it will give you a good indication of a true price, then you
will be the one to find a bigger price on that outcome. By doing this you’ll massively increase the
amount you win. The more you do this, the more you win.
For example, if your selections got a 25% chance of winning, the odds should be 4.0. If you get
the 20% price even though your bet has a 25% chance of winning, over the long term there is a
5% profit margin.
That’s to say, if you bet 10 pounds a 4.0 over a hundred sample bets you’ve more than likely
breakeven with 25 winning bets at 40 pounds return, totaling a thousand pounds return. Which is
the same amount you staked in the first place a 100 bets at 10 pounds.
If we take the same example, but add in a 5% margin, the results will be 10 pounds at 5.0 over a
hundred bets, you get 25 winning bets of 50 pound return, totaling a return of 1,250 pounds.
However, keep in mind that you only risked the same 1000 pounds in the previous example. This
is 250 pounds value for you. - Staking
There is more to maximising profits, and once you know the true price and find one of value,
then you move to staking because that’s another part of the puzzle. The stakes must be relative to
value. If there is a bigger margin, the stake is bigger.
This is simple, like in business if you had a product with a bigger margin and the opportunity
presented itself, you should work hard to sell more of those products. Doing the opposite is not a
very smart move. - Change
Remember, everything is about price, not the horse, team or player. These things are all
irrelevant, the easiest way to find value is in change. Sports with fast changing odds are the
easiest way to find value.
Horse and grey hound racing are good examples of this fact, specifically in the last ten minutes
before the start of the event. Learning about what moves a price is key in this respect.
Anticipating a move and being one of the first bettors to exploit price is the most reliable betting
strategy you will ever come across.
When it comes to adopting a betting strategy that works for making more income, the first thing
you don’t want to do is make decisions based on gut feeling or fancy, or even worse listen to a
tipster, particularly if they want you to click their link.
Instead map out for yourself clear betting strategy that were formed based on reliable methods
like probability, real value, stakes, and changes, like the one we have listed out in this article.
