The National Football League (NFL) match season is one of the hottest sports events in the USA. If you
want to get in on the action this sport offers, use our beginners guide to NFL betting to get started.
The NFL provides a unique pace for bettors, with teams playing once a week. The odds usually come out
on Sunday nights, and sportsbooks take betting action throughout the week, with the most wagers coming
in right before kickoff.
As a first time bettor, our guide will help you get started the proper way so that you avoid mistakes, most
beginners would make.
Furthermore, it covers key things to note about NFL betting like common betting lines, tips and strategies,
and how to bet on NFL games.
Ready? Let’s get to it.
- What is the NFL?
- What are NFL betting lines?
● Types of NFL betting lines
- 7 best NFL betting tips and strategies
What Is The NFL?
The National Football League is a professional American football league that houses 32 teams equally
divided amongst the American Football Conference (AFC) and the National Football Conference (NFC).
The NFL is one of the big four sports leagues in the US, next to the MLB, NBA, and NHL.
What Are NFL Betting Lines?
Betting Lines are the different ways you can wager on NFL odds. There are hundreds of them, but there
are three major ones you must understand.
We have explained them below, including other NFL betting lines you might come across.
In NFL moneyline odds bookmakers ask you to pick the winner of a game, based on the strength of teams
and other influencing factors. Oddsmakers then calculate the implied probability of a victory for each
team and set moneyline odds for both.
Moneyline bets are the most straightforward means of wagering on NFL football, and are usually
displayed in American odds (hundreds) and show each team’s implied probability of winning the game.
In moneyline, the stronger team are the favorites and their odds are accompanied by a minus sign (-). The
weak team in a match is the underdog and has a plus sign (+) with its odds.
Point spreads betting lines need teams to win by more or lose by less, than a set number of points.
In points spread, oddsmakers calculate the perceived difference on the scoreboards between two teams
and put that number as the spread to handicap the competition. They do this even in matches between two
teams of unequal strength.
In point spread, for the favorite to cover the spread, they must win the game by four or more points, and
underdogs need to win the game outrightly or lose by two points or less.
One way one to understand NFL spreads bets, is to understand the “vig” odds, this is the cost of the
spread. Vig can display next to the spreads as 7.5 (-110) / +7.5 (-110).
Over/Unders Betting Line
You can use the Over/Unders betting line when you don’t have a strong opinion on both teams and instead
settle for betting on the combined number of points scored.
Oddsmakers measure things like teams’ offenses, defenses, and weather and calculate an estimated point
If the game’s combined predicted score is 53 points, you can either place a bet that the score will go Over
53 or Under it.
There is a vig assigned to both sides of the total, bookmakers use the -110 line on Over/Under betting.
$1.10 risked is a $1 payout and $110 wins $100. Over 48 is displayed as Over 48 (-110) / Under 48 (-
Props (propositions) betting focuses on things like team performance, player output, specific happenings
or results throughout an event.
You can bet on the Over/Under passing yards for a quarterback or total field goals kicked in a game.
There are different formats of prop bets each with its unique odds sets like Over/Under, Yes/No props or
odds like players who score a touchdown.
Derivatives lets you pick different parts or segments of a game and bet on their modified odds like first-
half spreads or first-quarter Over/Under totals.
Derivatives also apply to team propositions like first-half team totals or number of touchdowns scored in
the third quarter.
To find value derivatives’ markets, find patterns like teams’ tendencies and trends.
NFL Futures betting are odds based on long-running results like odds to win the Super Bowl, rookie of
the year odds or total season win.
Betting on many futures odds opens before the start of a football season and runs till the winner is graded,
changing continuously due to results, injuries, and betting actions. You can bet on futures at any point of
a season, and the odds you bet on are the odds that your wager will be graded on.
In-game Live Betting
In-game live betting you wager on a live game. Odds continuously adjust based on score, time, and field
position. You can bet on the live spread, Live Over/Under or other markets like following series results or
players to score the next touchdown.
7 Best NFL Betting Tips and Strategies
Use these betting tips and strategies to sharpen your skills, so that you can place better NFL bets.
Monitor the odds
NFL odds change and constantly adjust from the moment they’ve been posted. To get the best odds,
determine the best time to bet based on the line movement.
If you want to back the favorites or Over/Unders, do so earlier in the week than later because totals can
reduce or grow within the week due to betting action and things like injuries and weather.
If you back Unders and notice the totals growing close to the game day, wait till before kickoff to bet and
see how high the total can get, to give you a better number for your opinion.
Know NFL Key Numbers
The scoring system for football is rigid, with its field goals worth 3 points and touchdowns worth 7 (plus
extra points). Due to this, most NFL games are decided by 3,6, or 7 points. These numbers are where
Point spreads are set on.
The line movement for those key numbers are significant based on the side of the point spread back.
Backing a favorite at -6.5 or underdog at +7.5 has more value because the final score can be called at 7
Identify Public Betting And Consensus
When the majority of NFL betting rises, Sportsbooks accept wagers from public bettors who are
influenced by common opinion and favorite team.
The public’s opinion is shown in the NFL consensus for every game, which has a percentage placed on
both sides of a point spread or Over/Under. The percentage is influenced by point spread, moneyline, and
NFL Betting trends
NFL betting trends are patterns in a game that repeat the same betting result, usually against the spread
(ATS) or Over/Under (the total). In the NFL, trends could be good or bad.
Bettors argue the authenticity of betting trends, mostly because they concern short-term results or limited
sample sizes. But, long-term betting trends can show patterns to follow, especially if they have narratives
that explain the results rather than random occurrences.
The worth of home-field advantage and its impact in NFL betting is arguable. Although it is thought to be
worth 3 points to NFL spreads, this value is more of a public opinion than calculated impacts.
Compare each team’s home Vs away record when handicapping for home advantage, look for teams that
play best at home, teams that don’t travel well, teams that struggle to perform outdoors and where the
teams played the previous week.
Weather can impact a game’s final result massively.
Autumn seasons bring cold, wind, and rain to outdoor venues in northern cities. Rain and snow influence
how teams play, depending on where those teams are from. Wind influences passes and kicks.
Monitor weekly forecasts and games scheduled for poor weather conditions.
Injuries influence the odds and outcomes of a game. When betting on NFL spreads and totals, identify
which players are in or out.
Quarterbacks, star running backs and receiver’s can impact odds. Besides these key positions, player
injuries don’t have much influence on odds.
However, find cluster injuries at specific positions or units. Having offensive linemen or members of the
secondary out, can impact the outcome of a game.
In the NFL, a bad week is not a reason for you to go overboard with your next bets because you want to
compensate. Accept that bad weeks happen and it’s not reasonable to let it influence your game.
Another good way to improve your edge in NFL betting is to have multiple books. Finding new betting
sites ensures you always get the best available odds.
Monitoring the betting market helps you learn tendencies and team patterns that will make you a more
informed and skilled bettor.