Every hitter during the Major League season has at one point endured ups and downs, but sometimes those downs do not go away immediately. This was how it happened last season for the five MLB hitters listed below, who entered the 2022 campaign with hope, and some even had aspirations to become MVP.
Now, with Spring Training approaching, and a new MLB season underway, five MLB.com writers have picked their best candidates for which MLB hitters are most likely to bounce back in 2023. This is the list below:
Max Muncy, Dodgers
Key stat: .227 BABIP in 2022
Last year, underlying injury issues and lack of luck affected Muncy. The slugger’s strong 2021 ended with a torn UCL, which he got while attempting to catch a throw at first base that took his arm into the path of a baserunner on the final day of the regular season, denying him the rest of October and impacting a greater part of his play in 2022. In late May, Muncy went on the injured list for a left elbow inflammation. His average at that time was Just.150.
Even after Max returned two weeks later, it took him a while to get his groove back. He was slashing .161/.310/.303 with only 10 doubles and nine homers in 83 games as of July 31. Here is where the bad luck should be highlighted, because Muncy’s BABIP at that time was a ridiculously low .190. from August 1, he slashed a more Muncy-like .247/.358/.500 with 12 doubles and 12 homers in 53 games – thanks partly to more a reasonable.282 BABIP.
Given his fly-ball tendencies and lack of speed, Muncy’s BABIP profile is not exactly, high, but his .227 mark last season was the fourth worst in MLB. That was not the worst of his seven-year career: He posted a .203 BABIP in the short 2020 season, only to rebound with a down-ballot MVP campaign (135 OPS+, career-high 36 HR) – in spite of a .257 BABIP.
Amidst all the hardship Muncy endured last year, he maintained his elite plate disciplines (99th percentile walk rate, 100th percentile chase rate) including exit velos and hard-hit rates in alignment with his career norms. In other words, he will seek out a return to form his age-42 season.
-Chosen by Jason Catania
Tyler O’Neil, Cardinals
Key stat: .392 xwOBA in 2021
O’Neil was one of the best all-around players in the Majors in 2021, joining the likes of Ronald Acuña Jr., Showing Ohtani, and Fernando Tati’s Jr. as the only qualifiers to rank in the 90tg percentile or better in both xwOBA (based on the quality of contact, strikeouts and walks) and sprint speed. Tyler finished eighth in NL MVP Award voting after hitting. 286 with 34 homers, 15 steals and a .912 OPS over 138 games.
Although he relapsed with the bat last season and slashed just .228/.308/.392, the 27-year-old outfielder still showed skills which were above average in a number of areas, all the while making noteworthy strides in improving his plate discipline and lowering his strikeout rate. And after missing significant time in the first half of last season with a right shoulder impingement and a left hamstring strain, he started to look more like his 2021 self down the road.
O’Neill recorded a .387 xwOBA over his last 31 games – which is estimated to be one-third of his season – while socking eight dingers in that span before another left hamstring injury cut him off in mid-September. To add to his injury mishap, he has some tough luck at the plate, tying for the 22nd-largest gap (24 points) between his xwOBA (.331) and his original wOBA (.307).
Tyler does not have a long successful track record, except the one he got in 2021, but this season he is due for an uptick in production and definitely MLB hitters to make a comeback material.
– Chosen by Thomas Harrigan.
Nick Castellanos, Phillies
Key stat: .539 xSLG from 2019-21 (.395 in ’22)
While, Nick Castellanos undeniably made some big plays in the Phillies’ postseason run – with his defense of all things – his debut season in Philadelphia was mostly disastrously. Castellanos just only 13 home runs after signing a five-year, $100 million deal last off-season and posted a career-worst .694 OPS in 2022. That came on the back of a 34-homer campaign with the Reds in ’21 in which he had a .939 OPS and made his first All-Star appearance.
“Last year was last year,” He said recently.
Nick had said that he wasn’t comfortable last year. He was “pissed off, unhappy, frustrated.” The extra-base hits he had become known for – his 278 doubles from his first full season in 2014 through ’21 which were the most in MLB – disappeared. He ranked in the bottom quarter of the league in average exit velocity and hard-hit rate. His barrel percentage dipped to 6.6%, down from 10.6% in 2021 and a career-best 16% in ’20.
That being said, Castellanos’ whiff rate was slightly down from his ’20 mark and his chase rate was up only slightly. The only noticeable difference was that he swung at first pitch a career-high 47.5% of the time – up from 42% in ’21 and 37.8% in ’20.
He has never backed down from saying it how it is, and he says he’s more comfortable and settled in going into ’23. If that’s really the case, expect the ex-Silver Slugger to be back to the top of the leaderboard in doubles, especially playing his home games at hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park. He is a perfect candidate for the list of MLB hitters to bounceback.
– Chosen by Paul Casella.
Jesse Winker, Brewers
Key stat: .392 xwOBA from 2020-21
Winker was one of the best MLB hitters in the Majors on a rate basis from 2020-21, ranking in the same range as Yordan Alvarez, Paul Goldschmidt, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Shohei Ohtani. And his results matched his expected metrics (which are based on the quality of contact, strikeouts and walks). However after an off-season trade from Cincinnati to Seattle, Jesse’s expected production took a nose dive in 2022, and his numbers did the same too (.219/.344/.344).
There may be an obvious reason for that. Although his durability is in constant question, Winker still managed to play in 136 games for the Mainers but did so while impaired by a meniscus injury in his left knee, and a neck injury too. Both of which led him to off-season surgery, the latter a disc replacement procedure that he said paid immediate dividends for relieving symptoms that had plagued him for years. It is too soon to know if Jesse will maintain his health, but there is a reason behind this hope.
Another thing to note is that Seattle traded Winker to Milwaukee, whose America Family Field ranks as the fifth-best home run park for lefties – 14 spots ahead of the Mariners’ T-Mobile Park. (It is worth knowing that he has slashed .344/.440/.591 in 109 career plate appearances in Milwaukee.) This means that the road is clear for a refreshed Winker to get back to his status as an All-Star-caliber bat in 2023.
– Chosen by Andrew Simon.
Jared Walsh, Angels
Key stat: .417 wOBA vs. RHP from 2020-21, sixth best in MLB (min. 400 PA)
Jared Walsh is another lefty slugger that wants to bounce back from a campaign spoilt by an injury, easily placing him on the list of MLB hitters that will make a comeback. After He experienced symptoms of thoracic outlet syndrome for many years before last season, but they got worse over the course of 2022.
The reoccurring tightness in his neck and left shoulder, including the tingling in his fingertips, made him a shadow of his former self at the plate.
In 2020, Walsh squashed nine home runs over his last 20 games during the shortened season and carried that energy into, 2021 when he posted a 126 wRC+ – meaning he was 26% better than the league average with the bat. Walsh’s ability to make authoritative contact was shown in his 11.3% barrel rate and by ranking in the 94th percentile when it came to maximum exit velocity. He slashed .333/.405/.589 in almost 400 plate appearances versus right-handed pitching. He smashed 29 home runs and made the All-Star team. Jared was the Angels’ best everyday hitter who was not Shohei Ohtani, that season’s unanimous AL MVP.
Last year, all of Walsh’s numbers dropped, which is understandable. He wanted against righties, turning in a .660 OPS. But almost, six months after getting corrective surgery, he says he is feeling close to 100% in spring camp. He is in the running to receive the bulk of his at-bats versus righty pitchers, which clearly plays to his strengths, bringing the optimism that he can recapture his form from two years ago.
This will go a long way in assisting the Angels to defy their low playoff probability.
Chosen by Brian Murphy.
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