Last year, Bayern Munich were back on their throne. After the surprising third-place finish in the 2023-24 season sent shockwaves through German football, the record champions responded exactly as everyone expected: by winning the title back. Their comfortable victory in the 2024-25 campaign makes it 12 Bundesliga wins in the last 13 years.
For a moment, it looked like the league might be opening up again, similar to the era before Bayern’s incredible run began. Between 2004 and 2012, four different clubs – Stuttgart, Wolfsburg, and Borussia Dortmund (who won two in a row under Jürgen Klopp) all lifted the Meisterschale. But that period feels a long time ago now.
Bayern Munich opened their title defense at the Allianz Arena with a sweet victory against a dangerous RB Leipzig side. Across the weekend, Borussia Dortmund travelled to face newly-promoted St. Pauli, and Erik ten Hag’s Bayer Leverkusen hosted Heoffenheim.
Bayern established clearly that they are an overwhelming team to beat with a 6-0 finish in their first match.
Unsurprisingly, as we look ahead to the new season, Bayern are the overwhelming favorites to win it all again. But what makes them so strong? And if they do slip up, who is ready to take advantage? and is it safe to say that the Bundesliga of 2025 is Bayern’s world, and everyone else is just living in it? In this article, we’ll give you a breakdown of our prediction of Bayern Munich’s gameplay in the 2025-2026 Bundesliga season.
The Kompany & Kane Era is in Full Swing
The brief experiment with Thomas Tuchel is now a distant memory. Under Vincent Kompany, Bayern have found a clear identity and a style of play that suits their squad. The high-pressing, possession-based football that Kompany advocates was a perfect fit for a team eager to regain its reputation.
And then, of course, there is Harry Kane. The English striker has been nothing short of phenomenal since his arrival in 2023. The numbers are simply staggering. In all competitions for Bayern, he has scored 86 goals from an expected goals of just 70.7. This means he is scoring far more goals than the average player would from the chances he gets. This “overperformance” is the best of any player in Europe’s top five leagues. He is the most clinical finisher on the continent.
Kane is already eyeing a third consecutive Bundesliga top scorer award. If he wins it again in 2025-26, he will join true legends of the game. Only Gerd Müller and Robert Lewandowski, with seven each, have more Golden Boots in the German top flight. With Kane leading the line, you can always count on goals.
Bayern have signed New Players
Every champion squad needs refreshing, and Bayern have been very smart in the transfer market. They identified key areas and brought in top-quality players to fill them.
The headline arrivals are winger Luis Díaz from Liverpool and defender Jonathan Tah from rivals Bayer Leverkusen.
Luis Díaz looks like a perfect signing for Kompany’s system. He made an immediate impact, scoring the winner in the pre-season Franz Beckenbauer Cup win over Stuttgart. His biggest strength is his relentless pressing. Last season, he won possession in the final third more times (147) than any other Liverpool forward. He doesn’t just work hard; he provides serious quality. He is coming off his best goalscoring season in a major league (17 goals in all competitions) and averaged 2.05 open-play chances created per 90 minutes in the Premier League. To put that in perspective, only new teammate Michael Olise (2.88) had a better average among Bayern players in the Bundesliga last season.
Jonathan Tah brings much-needed stability and leadership to the heart of Bayern’s defence. Signing the captain from your direct rivals is a huge statement. He is a dominant, title-winning centre-back who knows the league inside out. His arrival should make Bayern much harder to break down.
The End of an Era: Replacing Legends
While the new signings are exciting, Bayern have also said goodbye to some massive names. This season will feel different for the fans because, for the first time since the 2007-08 season, Thomas Müller will not be in the first-team squad.
Müller is a true icon. With 756 appearances, he has played more games for Bayern than any other player in history. Even in his final season, he was incredibly effective, contributing to 15 goals (8 goals, 7 assists) despite only starting 19 games. His football intelligence and unique presence in the locker room are irreplaceable.
On the wings, the experienced duo of Kingsley Coman and Ler Sané have also moved on. This has cleared the path for the new generation. The injury to Jamal Musiala (out with a fractured fibula) is a blow, but it opens the door for Michael Olise to make the number 10 role his own for the opening months. The pressure will be on the younger attackers to step up and provide the output that Sané and Coman consistently delivered.
Who Can Stop Bayern?
From what we can see, the race for second place is very tight. But if Bayern do have a crisis, the two teams below are most likely to profit and snatch up the first position.
1. Bayer Leverkusen
The team that started it all by breaking Bayern’s streak a few years ago now faces a huge rebuild of their own. With Xabi Alonso long gone, Erik ten Hag is the new man in charge. His task is enormous.
Leverkusen have lost a core part of their title-winning team. In Florian Wirtz, Granit Xhaka, Jeremie Frimpong, and now Jonathan Tah, they have lost four of their five most important players in building attacks last season. Only Alex Grimaldo remains from that key group.
Ten Hag has already asked for patience from the fans. The club has made some interesting signings, like Ibrahim Maza from Hertha Berlin (who completed the second-most dribbles in the 2. Bundesliga) and Malik Tillman from PSV, who was a sensational long-range shooter in the Eredivisie.
Their biggest piece of good news is keeping hold of striker Patrik Schick. The Czech forward was brilliant last season, scoring 21 goals in 31 Bundesliga games. Like Kane, he massively outperformed his expected goals (xG), with the highest overperformance in the league (8.3). If he stays fit, Leverkusen will always have a chance to win games. But a title challenge seems a step too far this season.
2. Borussia Dortmund
Dortmund have become the masters of squeaking into the top four. They took the Bundesliga’s fifth Champions League spot in 2023-24 and then secured fourth place on the final day of the 2024-25 season. In fact, they were outside the top four for 30 consecutive matchdays before their dramatic final-day push.
The team looks more stable under Niko Kovač, who took over from Nuri Sahin mid-season. The improvement was clear. Under Sahin, Dortmund conceded 1.72 goals and 1.35 expected goals against (xGA) per game. Under Kovač, those numbers dropped significantly to 1.21 goals and 1.19 xGA per game. He has made them much tougher to beat.
Their key man is striker Serhou Guirassy. The Guinea forward was magnificent last season, matching Patrik Schick’s tally of 21 Bundesliga goals. He also proved himself on the biggest stage, finishing as the joint-top scorer in the Champions League with 13 goals, level with Barcelona’s Raphinha.
Their main signing is Jobe Bellingham, who helped Sunderland win promotion to the Premier League. He brings energy and potential, but with a quiet transfer window overall, Dortmund’s main goal seems to be consolidating a top-three finish. A title push, however, remains a distant dream.
Our Prediction
So, is Bayern’s title in safe hands? All the evidence points to yes.
They have the best striker in the world in Harry Kane. They have made intelligent signings in Luis Díaz and Jonathan Tah that directly improve their starting eleven. They have a manager whose philosophy is now embedded in the team. And they have the experience and mentality of champions.
The departures of Müller, Sané, and Coman are significant, but Bayern have planned for this. Their squad depth and quality remain the best in the league by a considerable margin.
For bettors, backing Bayern to win the Bundesliga is the safe, logical choice. Harry Kane for the top scorer is almost a default option, while looking at Bayer Leverkusen or Dortmund to finish in the top four without winning the title could offer better returns.
The Bundesliga might be a one-horse race again, but with Kane chasing history and a new-look Bayern taking the field, it will certainly be a thrilling ride.
