What serious bettors want the most is to gain an advantage over whoever is laying their bet whether they are bookmakers or casino. This is called having an edge over them, and if you are serious about becoming a successful bettor, you need to understand what it really means.
What’s the margin between success and failure in betting?
One of the most popular clichés in journalism is – the margin between success and failure slim. However, the margin between making a profit and losing all your bankroll in betting is dependent on the bookmaker you choose to bet with.
Many bettors are oblivious to the impact of margins, however, this does not stop it from being fundamental to making money in betting. At Matchplug we pick the games with the most appropriate margins, therefore, offering bettors a greater chance of winning.
Knowledge gives you power
The first step to identifying the advantage a bookmaker holds over you is to understand margins. The next thing you can do after understanding margin is to find ways to prevent them from using their edge over you. The single most powerful way to get an advantage over a bookmaker is to find and bet on markets where you have more information about than they do.
The simple truth is that, although bookmakers are experienced and they have tools that can help them, they have their weaknesses too. A perfect example is the minor leagues. Most bookmakers offer minor leagues just to differentiate themselves from competitors not because they are experts in those leagues.
They may find it hard to understand the dynamics of the third division of the Russian Volleyball league, yet they still offer bets in those areas where they are weak, but you can be very knowledgeable yourself in those areas and that gives you an advantage over the bookmakers.
You need to keep your ear on the ground
Knowledge as many see it is only potential power, and it alone cannot guarantee success. If whatever information you get is already common, it would have already impacted the odds. The real value, therefore, comes from information from the horse’s mouth.
Twitter has taken centre stage in terms of how fast information are disseminated, but it has also helped to reduce the time it takes for an information to become common as well as increased the amount of false information being shared.
Betting different from popular opinion
If given the chance would you rather bet on an event that is unknown instead of one whose information is available? The latter is obviously the best option. Getting an edge over the bookmakers definitely requires having an insight into the envelope before the award’s winner is announced.
Information is always getting leaked either sometimes verbally, or in other ways. The results may not be entirely known, but motivation makes it very predictable. Take a look at reality TV shows, for example, every participant is talented in their own way, but the talent is not the only thing being considered. Controversies surrounding a particular participant would play a key role in whether they stay long in the show or not, you should research other things about the shows like program ratings also if you are betting on it.
Understanding Cross-Correlation
Cross-correlation and dependencies are very important in betting and understanding them gives you a huge edge. If you can focus on anticipating bad weather and correlate them with certain results in a particular sport, you may establish yourself as an expert in winning bets based on whether bad weather causes low scoring outcomes or not.
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